Bitcoin (BTC) Could Surge 10% in Early January as Historical New Year Pattern Repeats

Bitcoin historically turns positive in early January, which gives the crypto asset a 2/3 chance of gaining 10% next week.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) struggle in 2025 was real. Despite an almost epic bull run, the October crash exposed the fragility of the rally. Even as the current market sentiment remains bearish, new data suggest that BTC rarely stays negative after the New Year, even following weak year-end transitions like those seen in 2022.

Alphractal founder and CEO Joao Wedson said Bitcoin has a historically strong tendency to turn positive in early January.

Bitcoins Bitcoin’s New Year Effect

In the latest post on X, Wedson argued that the market structure around the New Year transition supports a bullish short-term outlook, despite recent weakness.

Across Bitcoin’s price history, the week following December 31 has seen negative performance only three times, implying a 2/3 probability that BTC ends the first week of January with gains of at least 10%.

This pattern has held even after weak year-end transitions. For instance, back in 2022, Bitcoin initially dropped before rebounding sharply in the following days. Wedson observed that while year-end transitions are generally weak, with notable exceptions during the 2017-2018 and 2020-2021 periods, the days immediately after the New Year often determine whether BTC pulls back or continues higher.

He also broadened his analysis to longer-term cycle behavior, and pointed out that from one halving to the next, Bitcoin consistently records around 109-110 weeks where the Sunday-to-Monday transition starts positively. At the same time, he found that the number of weeks starting with declines has steadily increased across cycles. The analyst estimated around 100 such weeks in the current cycle, which he said makes short-term BTC trading progressively more difficult.

Wedson also described 2025 as the worst year on record for positive weekly starts, as it saw only 21 weeks opening higher compared to 31 that began with declines. This means that accumulation during that period reflected poor timing, as per the analysis. Despite this, he added that Bitcoin’s overall performance in 2025 was comparatively resilient, as it ended the year down 10%, a result that was deemed to be still significantly better than the deep drawdowns seen in 2018 and 2022.

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Bitcoins LTH Accumulation Takes Hold

Supporting Wedson’s short-term outlook, on-chain data reveals that selling pressure from long-term BTC holders remains low. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Junior said the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Distribution Pressure Index has moved into the accumulation zone, which shows minimal selling activity. The index’s Z-score currently sits at -1.628, below the -1.5 threshold that indicates low distribution.

Adler explained that this followed a brief rise in selling on December 10-11, when long-term holder spending increased sharply before easing again within days. Since then, selling activity has stayed low. He added that the seven-day average LTH spending has dropped to around 221 BTC, while SOPR remains above 1 at 1.13, which essentially means that holders are not rushing to sell.