Oregon vs. Texas Tech prediction, odds, time: 2026 Orange Bowl and CFP quarterfinal picks by advanced model

The fifth-ranked Oregon Ducks take on the fourth-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders in a College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup at the Orange Bowl on Thursday. Oregon defeated James Madison 51-34 on Dec. 20 in a CFP first-round matchup, while Texas Tech defeated BYU 34-7 in the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6. The Ducks (12-1), who finished third in the Big Ten, have won seven in a row and are 2-1 against ranked opponents. The Red Raiders (12-1), who tied for first in the Big 12, have won six consecutive games and are 3-0 against ranked foes.

Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., is at noon ET. Oregon leads the all-time series 3-0, including a 38-30 win in 2023. The Ducks are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Oregon vs. Texas Tech odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 50.5 via SportsLine consensus. Oregon is at -129 on the money line (risk $129 to win $100). Before making any Texas Tech vs. Oregon picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your $5+ bet wins:

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times, and it is 31-19 on its top-rated college football money-line picks since the beginning of the 2024 season. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Oregon vs. Texas Tech. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Texas Tech vs. Oregon:

New users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $250 in bonus bets at FanDuel if your $5 bet wins. 

Football Why Oregon can cover

Sophomore quarterback Dante Moore is a big reason for the Ducks’ success. In 13 games, he has completed 72.4% of his passes for 3,046 yards and 28 touchdowns with just eight interceptions and a 170.1 rating. He also has rushed 58 times for 196 yards (3.4 average) and two touchdowns. In the win over James Madison, he completed 19 of 27 passes for 313 yards and four touchdowns with two interceptions. He also rushed for a five-yard touchdown.

Among his top receivers is senior wide receiver Malik Benson. In 13 games, he has 36 receptions for 645 yards (17.9 average) and six touchdowns. In the win over James Madison, he caught five passes for 119 yards (23.8 average) and two touchdowns. He had five catches for 102 yards and one touchdown in a 26-14 win at Washington on Nov. 29. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Football Why Texas Tech can cover 

Senior quarterback Behren Morton leads the Red Raiders’ offense. In 11 games this season, he has completed 67% of his passes for 2,643 yards and 22 touchdowns with four interceptions. He has thrown seven touchdowns with no interceptions over the past four games. In the win over BYU, he completed 20 of 33 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns.

Powering the Texas Tech ground attack is sophomore running back Cameron Dickey. In 13 games, he has carried 198 times for 1,095 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also has caught 24 passes for 216 yards (9.0 average) and two touchdowns. In a 29-7 win over BYU on Nov. 8, he carried 23 times for 121 yards (5.3 average) and one touchdown. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Football How to make Oregon vs. Texas Tech picks

SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total, projecting 58 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Oregon vs. Texas Tech, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Oregon vs. Texas Tech spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that’s simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.