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Bitcoins Analyst points to recurring four-year cycles as Bitcoin’s price action remains tied to historic market patterns and halvings.
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Key Takeaways
- Fidelity’s director predicts Bitcoin may enter a bear market in 2026 with support between $65,000 and $70,000.
- Bitcoin’s recent cycle peak at $125,000 aligns with previous four-year cycles in price and timing.
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Bitcoin may have wrapped up its halving-cycle bull run and could enter a cooling period in 2026, predicted Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments.
The macro strategist suggested that Bitcoin could revisit the $65,000 to $70,000 range following the recent cycle peak, which saw the price reach $126,000. He still expects Bitcoin to rise in the long run.
While I remain a secular bull on Bitcoin, my concern is that Bitcoin may well have ended another 4-year cycle halving phase, both in price and time. If we visually line up all the bull markets (green) we can see that the October high of $125k after 145 months of rallying fits… pic.twitter.com/Uxg9DTccnt
— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) December 18, 2025
Timmer previously noted that Bitcoin’s trend setup lagged behind gold’s, with indicators placing the two assets at opposite extremes. While this could eventually create a mean-reversion opportunity, he repeatedly said the timing was premature.
The analyst also pointed out that cycle highs are less extreme as adoption matures.
Bitcoin changed hands above $88,000 at press time, experiencing major price swings over the past few weeks amid investor caution ahead of year-end, per CoinGecko.
