Quantum Computers vs. Bitcoin: Why 2026 Will Be Business as Usual

Quantum computing and DATs are overhyped risks for 2026, says Grayscale, while predicting new highs for Bitcoin.

Grayscale said it expects 2026 to accelerate long-term structural shifts in digital asset investing, driven by macroeconomic pressures and clearer regulation.

But it has outlined two high-profile topics it does not expect to meaningfully influence crypto market performance in 2026 – quantum computing risks and the rise of digital asset treasuries (DATs).

Quantum Risks and DATs Won’t Move Markets

While concerns around quantum computing frequently resurface, Grayscale, in its latest report titled “2026 Digital Asset Outlook,” argued that the threat remains distant from a market-impact perspective.

Although sufficiently powerful quantum machines could theoretically compromise existing cryptography, expert estimates suggest such capabilities are unlikely before 2030. As a result, research into post-quantum cryptography and network preparedness may accelerate next year, but Grayscale does not expect these efforts to materially affect crypto valuations in the near term.

The firm takes a similarly measured view on DATs, despite their growing media attention. Corporate balance sheet strategies that hold crypto assets expanded rapidly in 2025, yet demand has since cooled, and many DATs are now trading close to net asset value. Importantly, most are lightly levered and unlikely to trigger forced selling during downturns.

The asset manager expects DATs to function more like closed-end funds, which will make them a lasting but largely neutral factor for crypto markets in 2026.

New ATH in 2026?

On the price side, Grayscale has reiterated its bullish outlook on Bitcoin, predicting that it is likely to reach a new all-time high in the first half of the year, even as the market grapples with short-term weakness. According to the asset manager, the broader crypto asset class remains in a bull market, and 2026 is expected to mark the end of the traditional four-year cycle, which could bring rising valuations across all sectors.

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Grayscale’s optimism rests on two core pillars. First is the growing macro demand for alternative stores of value, as high and rising public debt increases long-term risks to fiat currencies. In this environment, scarce digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ethereum are increasingly viewed as portfolio hedges against potential currency debasement.

Second, improving regulatory clarity is unlocking institutional capital. Some of the important milestones, including Grayscale’s legal victory against the SEC, the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETPs, and the passage of stablecoin legislation, have reduced uncertainty for investors.

Looking ahead, the firm expects further bipartisan crypto market structure laws, which could firmly embed blockchain-based finance into US capital markets and support higher Bitcoin prices.