Football
With three weeks officially in the books for college football, fans and pundits can begin to start judging teams. There are patterns to be analyzed and those can signal which programs are going to be the contenders and which will simply flame out as the weeks go on.
It’s also never too early to start thinking about the postseason. Which squads are shaping up to challenge for conference titles and which could sneak into the expanded College Football Playoff field as at-large teams?
We’re going to evaluate the Week 4 Associated Press Top 25 rankings and determine how the 2025-26 CFP bracket will shape up.
Projecting the CFP bracket based on the Week 4 AP rankings
Top 4 byes
Since the CFP decided to alter its seeding system from last year, which gave the top four conference champions a first-round bye, it’s easy to see that the top-4 teams in general will be the top seeds in this year’s bracket. Here’s a look at the teams that would earn first-round byes.
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- LSU Tigers
- Miami Hurricanes
The CFP still assigns quarterfinal bowl game venues by historic relationships so it can be assumed the Buckeyes would return to the Rose Bowl, the Nittany Lions to the Orange Bowl, the Tigers to the Sugar Bowl and the Hurricanes would get the Cotton Bowl by default.
At-large bids
This is where things get a little interesting. You’ve got to have a conference champion from each of the Power Four and the highest ranked Group of Five champion also. At the moment, the Big 12 would be sending Iowa State as the 11-seed as they are currently ranked No. 12 by the AP. The highest-ranked Group of Five squad isn’t even in the AP rankings anymore. That would be the American Athletic’s South Florida as the 12-seed, currently receiving votes at No. 27.
Otherwise, straight seeding takes over when it comes to teams 5-10. That would see the order play out as such: (5) Georgia, (6) Oregon, (7) Florida State, (8) Texas, (9) Illinois and (10) Texas A&M. Here’s how those matchups would look, with the higher seed hosting the first-round game of the CFP at their home field.
- 12 South Florida at 5 Georgia
- 11 Iowa State at 6 Oregon
- 10 Texas A&M at 7 Florida State
- 9 Illinois at 8 Texas
In this bracket, the Big Ten and SEC would get four teams each into the playoff compared to just two from the ACC, one from the Big 12 and one for the American Athletic.
Those names and seeds will most definitely change over the course of the year. Fans should keep their eyes on those top four, especially with the Big Ten likely coming down to a battle between Ohio State and Penn State on Nov. 1.
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