Does PM’s ouster mean the end for Thailand casinos before they even begin?

Thailand’s road to a legal casino industry, always marked by setbacks, may have hit a dead end.

Since its introduction last year, the country’s Entertainment Complex Bill has faced widespread opposition, including multiple demonstrations outside Government House in Bangkok. Critics like Peoples Party MP Parit Wacharasindhu accused the ruling coalition of pushing the bill with little public input and insufficient attention to regulations.

Competing polls led to contradictory results. A January poll reported that many Thai residents opposed legal casinos, fearing they would cause gambling addiction and crime. A subsequent survey by the Thailand Fiscal Policy Office countered that 80% of respondents were enthusiastic about the plan, designed to boost tourism and foreign investment.

The interest was certainly there. Galaxy Entertainment, MGM Resorts International, the Las Vegas Sands Corporation, Wynn Resorts and Melco Resorts & Entertainment were potential suitors, drawn by the prospect of up to THB291 billion (US$9 billion) in annual gross gaming revenue.

The bill passed in the cabinet in March and headed to parliament for review, with expectations that the bidding would begin in 2026. Then Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, head of the Pheu Thai Party and chief supporter of the bill, made a fateful phone call.

‘Grave damage’ to the public trust

The young prime minister, who took office in August 2024, was seen by some as the puppet of her father, billionaire and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, also a supporter of the casino bill.

Although Paetongtarn withstood a no-confidence vote in March, she could not survive the political scandal that followed. In May, the Thai army faced off with Cambodian forces along disputed territory at the border. Gunfire erupted, causing the death of a Cambodian sergeant. In the aftermath, both sides took retaliatory action, suspending trade and limiting cross-border travel.

In June, Paetongtarn phoned ex-Cambodian prime minister Hun Sen. In a recording released to the public by Hun Sen himself, she addressed the strongman as “uncle” and seemed to take his side over one of her own military commanders.

The outcry was immediate and decisive. The prime minister was suspended and the casino legislation she supported was pulled from the parliamentary agenda. In a 6-3 vote on Friday, the Thailand Constitutional Court removed Paetongtarn from office. It ruled that her actions caused “grave damage” to the office of the premier and deepened public distrust of their leaders.

Now what?

MGM boss Bill Hornbuckle has called Thailand “an amazing marketplace” that would be “cheap to build – 35 cents to 40 cents on the dollar – and even cheaper to operate. … I think the margin in that business would be pretty extensive.”

Likewise, Melco Resorts & Entertainment chief Lawrence Ho has described the market as “a generational opportunity”.

That may not matter now, given the history of political turmoil in Thailand, says Brendan Bussmann, head of gaming consultancy B Global. In his view, resurrection of the casino bill “seems dim” at this point.

“There have been three prime ministers [in Thailand] in the course of 18 months,” says Bussmann. (Paetongtarn’s predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, also served a single year, and also was removed for ethics violations.)

Such rapid turnover “doesn’t show stability, a hallmark of any strongly regulated gaming market, especially one that commands the level of investment that would boost tourism”, Bussmann adds. According to the bill, each would-be operator would have to demonstrate registered capital of THB10 billion and make a minimum investment of THB100 billion.

Some critics have griped that a strict gaming regulatory framework seemed less important to Thai lawmakers than speed to market. Advocates hoped Thailand’s first casino resorts would open in 2029, a year before MGM opens the first integrated resort in Japan. That scenario is unlikely now.

“That regulatory piece was always the most fundamental component to getting this to work in Thailand,” Bussmann says. “If you can still figure that out and get consensus among the various parties, you might still get there.

“Never say never,” he adds. “But that’s a very tall order.”