Quarterly construction output growth masks orders slide

But latest orders figures also out today suggest there could be a slowing down in construction activity ahead as the industry braces itself for a tough Autumn Budget.

Latest output figures from the ONS showed a return to modest construction growth of 0.3% in June, reversing part of May’s 0.5% dip. The growth came solely from a 1.2% uplift in repair and maintenance, with new work slipping 0.4%.

Between April and June, new work was up 1.1% while repair and maintenance rose 1.4% compared to the first quarter.

Private housing repair and maintenance was the biggest driver, jumping 3.7% in June, while non-housing repair and maintenance grew 0.8%.

However looking ahead, new orders took a hit, falling 8.3% (£976m) in Q2. The drop was led by weaker demand in infrastructure and private commercial work.

Scott Motley, head of programme, project and cost management at AECOM, said: “An uplift in June’s output offers some relief after last month’s dip, though underlying conditions remain challenging.

“This improvement underlines how important it will be for the sector to hold onto any gains in the face of ongoing market pressures.”

He added: “The sharp fall in July’s Construction PMI to its lowest reading since May 2020 is a clear warning sign. It suggests that the outlook for the rest of the summer is more uncertain, particularly for privately financed projects.

“The Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates to 4% in early August may offer some relief for borrowing costs and help revive sentiment in housing and commercial markets, but it will take time for any benefits to feed through to activity on the ground.

“Maintaining this recovery will require both the continued stability of public-sector investment and a gradual strengthening of confidence in private-sector demand.”

Aaron Morby
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