‘Chokehold’: Will Edmonton Oilers get squeezed out in brutal sellers’ market?

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All this has Mark Mazza, an analyst who specializes in strategic analysis of hockey business and operations, writing in an essay on the trade and free agent situation writing that: “At the moment, the NHL is experiencing a chokehold in the market. Having only one true seller (Pittsburgh) means there is a talent liquidity problem for everyone trying to get the players they want, more so than in an average year… Good teams will not be able to get the players they want when they become illiquid, and the middle teams will be able to fill the gaps.”

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He continues: “As the trade environment unfolds, there will likely be higher prices and fewer trades as teams are not matching potential partners’ demands.”

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Mazza makes the following prediction: “This market will cause a shift in the NHL’s power dynamics, as many impatient teams at the top lose steam and teams at the bottom pounce on their desperation.”

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My take

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1. You’re wondering — and I’m wondering — what does this mean for the Oilers? The Oilers have already moved out Evander Kane and his $5.1 million cap hit in 2025-26 in order to create cap space. The Oilers got a fourth round pick and had to retain no salary for Kane in large part because Vancouver looked at the market and saw no cheaper option than Kane to fill a top line wing need (with free agent winger Brock Boeser moving out of Vancouver).

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But Kane’s loss creates a void at the top of Edmonton’s roster. Who will fill it?

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2. Edmonton is also in danger of losing veteran free agents like Connor Brown and Corey Perry. There may not be enough cap space to offer them competitive contracts.

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There’s also much talk about moving out winger Viktor Arvidsson and his $4.0 million cap hit for the coming year.

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But if the Oilers can’t afford to keep any of Brown, Perry, Kane,  Arvidsson of veteran free agents, and if Edmonton also loses out on free agents Kasperi Kapanen and Jeff Skinner, the team will be down six wingers who saw action in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

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This would come after Edmonton lost Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele last summer. That’s a lot of talent on the wings that could go up in smoke in Edmonton as other NHl teams fill their salary cap space with Edmonton vets.

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3. On defence, John Klingberg played well against Los Angeles, VGK and Dallas in the playoffs, but it’s looking likely he’ll also be grabbed up by another team.

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4. Edmonton has to find cap space to pay star players like Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard next season, then Connor McDavid the season after that. It’s going to put the squeeze on Edmonton, one that is going to take every ounce of GM Stan Bowman’s experience and guile to solve.

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Players like newly-signed Trent Frederic, youngster Matt Savoie, young veterans Noah Philp and Vasily Podkolzin, newcomer David Tomasek, and veterans Adam Henrique and Mattias Janmark, are going to have to come up big in helping out Edmonton’s big four forwards, McDavid, Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman. There is plenty of opportunity here, but also plenty of risk for the Oilers. We’ve seen other forward groups on this team crash-and-burn due to a lack of quality wingers.

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5. Of course, the Oilers are likely going to be able retain one or two of Perry, Brown and Kapanen. The team might also want to think again about moving out Arvidsson too soon. Edmonton made a bad call last summer moving on from Foegele. With so few good players out there, Edmonton might well get solid value out of Arvidsson for one more year.

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At the Cult of Hockey

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