Last week, the Fourth of July arrived early for President Donald Trump, with House Republicans passing his massive economic package — which he dubbed the “big, beautiful bill” — in a dramatic, pre-holiday vote. The final tally: 218–214, sending the $5 trillion reconciliation measure to the President’s desk after days of all-night negotiations, backroom horse-trading, and record-setting speeches. Billed as a sweeping rewrite of taxes, energy, and healthcare policy, the legislation is expected to reshape the U.S. economy for years to come.
Suggested Reading
Still, the win for Trump comes just as fresh jobs data offers a more sobering snapshot of the present: June’s modest hiring gain masked deeper signs of labor-market trouble, with white-collar demand stalling, Black unemployment rising, and long-term joblessness quietly climbing.
Related Content
Here’s a look at what’s ahead this week:
Monday, July 7
It’s a quiet start to the week, with no major economic data or earnings on the calendar. Markets may take a breather — or keep reacting to headlines around the passage of Trump’s big bill and the looming trade-war deadline.
Tuesday, July 8
Small business sentiment and consumer borrowing come into focus, with the NFIB optimism index dropping early in the morning and providing a read on Main Street confidence after months of fiscal uncertainty. In the afternoon, May’s consumer credit report could show whether U.S. households are leaning on plastic to power their spending.
Wednesday, July 9
Wholesale inventories hit just after market open, offering clues on supply chains and restocking trends. But the main event comes at 2 p.m. ET with the release of minutes from the Fed’s May FOMC meeting. Traders will be watching for any hint of internal dissent or timeline tweaks regarding rate cuts. Expect parsing, more parsing, and headlines about what Powell really meant.
For those following along at home, this Wednesday also marks the deadline by which the Trump administration aimed to complete 90 trade deals — that is, the end of the tariff pause enacted in early April, just after the tariffs were declared. Whither tariffs from here? Bueller? The stakes are high but the outlook is nothing but muddled. Let’s see what actually materializes or doesn’t.
Thursday, July 10
Politics aside, Thursday marks the biggest data-and-earnings day of the week. Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 5 drop before the market open, with investors watching for any further labor market omens on the back of last week’s mixed bag. Delta Air Lines also reports. Last time out, the airline met expectations on the back of tight cost discipline. This round of earnings will give greater insight into travel patterns amid the trade wars.
Fed watchers will also be listening closely as two regional presidents speak: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem in the morning and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly in the afternoon. Neither is a current FOMC voter, but their remarks may still offer insight into how much internal support exists for a rate cut later this year.
Friday, July 11
The federal budget statement for June lands in the afternoon, potentially giving new material to those sounding alarms about the U.S. deficit. It’s a light day for earnings, with few reporting — so the fiscal math will likely do the talking.
???? Sign up for the Daily Brief
Read More
Catherine Baab