Mainland China chipmaking capacity set to outpace Taiwan by 2030

Mainland China chipmaking capacity is accelerating, now poised to become the world’s leading semiconductor foundry hub by 2030, and overtaking Taiwan in total capacity, according to the latest projections from Yole Group. Chinese dominance in this field is fueled by the country’s push to manufacture its own tech as U.S. export restrictions continue to ramp up.

China’s rapid rise in semiconductor manufacturing

Yole Group forecasts that China’s share of global foundry capacity will rise to 30% by 2030, up from 21% in 2024. In contrast, Taiwan, the current leader, held a 23% share last year. China’s foundry expansion has already propelled it past South Korea (19%), Japan (13%), and the U.S. (10%) in capacity rankings.

According to the South China Morning Post, the acceleration is fueled by massive state investment in China chipmaking notably through the China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (“Big Fund”), which has nurtured national champions like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor.

In 2024 alone, China’s monthly wafer production jumped 15% year-on-year, with local chipmakers accounting for 15% of global foundry capacity, a figure set to rise substantially by the decade’s end. The construction of new semiconductor fabrication plants, such as Huahong’s 12-inch facility in Wuxi, compounds the scale and speed of China’s manufacturing ramp-up.

Geopolitical tensions and Taiwan’s export crackdown

China’s doubling down in this area comes at a time of rising geopolitical pressures. Just three weeks ago, Taiwan imposed strict new export controls targeting Chinese firms like Huawei and SMIC, effectively blacklisting them from accessing advanced Taiwanese semiconductor technologies.

As CryptoSlate reported, this move aligns Taiwan more closely with U.S. policy and aims to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies to circumvent existing sanctions. The updated rules require government approval for any high-tech exports to the blacklisted entities, further isolating China’s chip sector from cutting-edge global supply chains.

China chipmaking: implications for the AI and crypto sectors

The outcome of this capacity race impacts both the AI and crypto industries. Semiconductors are the backbone of AI model training and inference, as well as crypto mining operations. Despite export bans, Chinese firms like Huawei and SMIC are developing competitive AI chips, but the loss of access to leading-edge Taiwanese tech could slow their progress and increase reliance on domestic innovation.

For the crypto sector, chip supply constraints can directly impact mining efficiency and network security. U.S. and Taiwanese restrictions have already raised operational costs for Chinese mining firms. If China succeeds in scaling its foundry capacity and closing the technology gap, it could stabilize domestic supply for crypto miners and AI developers, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape for both sectors.