Is Bitcoin’s price breaking out again? Analyzing THIS metric may be key!

• Bitcoin bounced to $104.9k after retesting $100k, keeping the price range-bound amid low momentum
• Without a clear upside catalyst, BTC may remain stuck between $104k and $107k

After retesting the $100k-level, Bitcoin [BTC] bounced strongly to $104.9k, returning within the long consolidation zone.

With BTC touching these levels again, it means all long-term holders (LTHs) returned in profit.  Often, when holders and investors are in profit, they tend to sell and realize their gains.

This is what’s currently happening among Bitcoin LTHs.

LTHs start selling as profits return

According to Glassnode data, LTHs have resumed selling, albeit at a moderate pace.

In fact, the HODLer Net Position Change remained negative at -14.2K BTC, indicating net outflows from long-term addresses.

This means that long-term holders are selling more than they are acquiring. Here, the movement of older coins is understandably concerning, especially since the market currently lacks a strong upside catalyst.

Momentum stalls as market lacks incentive

As it stands, investors currently lack the motivation to chase higher Bitcoin (BTC) prices, raising the risk of a short-term correction.

This risk is increasing due to a lack of momentum buyers and external factors to attract new capital.

We can see this lack of market catalyst as the 30-Day Volatility dropped below 1. At this value, volatility is very low. It also means that the market is compressed.

A drop below 1 for this metric indicates that investors are waiting for a catalyst with thin liquidity. That’s why Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound lately.

Historically, a period of low volatility precedes a major price breakout either to the upside or downside. The longer the compression, the bigger the eventual move to either side.

Are we entering early BTC distribution?

Finally, although spending by LTHs is currently moderate, the prevailing conditions may be a sign of early stages of distribution. Especially with the Long-Term Holder Binary Coin-Days Destroyed Z-Score having climbed above 5.

If the trend persists, while there’s no catalyst for a breakout to the upside, a market correction could occur.

If BTC fails to hold $100,413 support, the next logical level would sit near $97k.

Now, LTH spending has remained moderate. Meanwhile, short-term holders (STHs) have shown little inclination to sell. Especially with BTC still below $107k – An area that would typically spark broader participation.

Therefore, amid low volatility and moderate spending by LTHs, the most plausible outcome will be that BTC will trade sideways between $104k and $107k.