The ninth-seeded Baylor Bears will battle the eighth-seeded Mississippi State Bulldogs in an East Regional first-round matchup in the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Friday. Baylor is coming off a 76-74 loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Conference Tournament quarterfinals, while Mississippi State dropped an 85-73 decision to Missouri in the second round of the SEC Tournament. The Bears (19-14), who tied for seventh in the Big 12 at 10-10, are making their 17th NCAA Tournament appearance, winning the national title in 2021. The Bulldogs (21-12), who tied for ninth in the SEC at 8-10, are making their 14th NCAA Tournament appearance. Baylor guard Langston Love (ankle) is expected to play.
Tipoff from Lenovo Center in Raleigh, N.C., is set for 12:15 p.m. ET. Mississippi State is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Baylor vs. Mississippi State odds from SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 145.5. Before making any Mississippi State vs. Baylor picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-166 roll (+2025) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Baylor vs. Mississippi State and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Mississippi State vs. Baylor:
- Baylor vs. Mississippi State spread: Mississippi State -1.5
- Baylor vs. Mississippi State over/under: 145.5 points
- Baylor vs. Mississippi State money line: Mississippi State -121, Baylor +101
- BAY: The Bears have hit the game total over in 18 of their last 34 games (+0.40 units)
- MISST: The Bulldogs have hit the game total over in 21 of their last 34 games (+6.65 units)
- Baylor vs. Mississippi State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Mississippi State can cover
Sophomore guard Josh Hubbard helps power the Bulldogs. He was selected to the All-SEC second team this year, and his 1,214 career points are the most in program history by an underclassman. His 18.7 points per game are tied for third in the conference, and his 104 3-pointers rank second in the SEC. He has hit at least one 3-pointer in 46 consecutive games since Feb. 7, 2024. He scored a career-high 38 points in an 88-84 loss to Alabama on Jan. 29, including 25 in the second half.
Also scoring in double digits for Mississippi State is junior forward KeShawn Murphy, who primarily comes off the bench. In 33 games, including three starts, he is averaging 11.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.2 blocks in 24.1 minutes. In the second-round loss to Missouri, he scored 18 points, while grabbing eight rebounds, making four steals and dishing out two assists. He has five double-doubles this season, including an 18-point and 11-assist effort in a 111-73 loss to Alabama on Feb. 25. See which team to pick here.
Why Baylor can cover
Senior forward Norchad Omier is coming off a 29-point and 15-rebound performance in the Big 12 quarterfinals against Texas Tech. He has registered a double-double in each of the last nine games and 21 times this season. In 33 games, all starts, he is averaging 15.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.2 steals and one block in 31.5 minutes. He is one of just seven players in the country averaging at least 15 points and 10 rebounds per game.
Guard V.J. Edgecombe was named the Big 12 Freshman of the Year and earned All-Big 12 second-team honors. He was also a finalist for the 2025 Jerry West Shooting Guard of the Year Award. In 31 games, all starts, he is averaging 15 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.1 steals in 32.5 minutes. In a 70-56 win over Kansas State in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament, he registered a double-double with 19 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and three steals. See which team to pick here.
How to make Baylor vs. Mississippi State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 148 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in 60% of simulations. You can only get the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Mississippi State vs. Baylor, and which side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Baylor vs. Mississippi State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,000 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.
Daniel Kohn
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