Tinubu’s 2027 Re-Election Bid: Business Unusual (2)

These positive developments may be enough to sustain voter support for Tinubu and the APC into 2027.

Historically, inflation alone doesn’t determine electoral outcomes in Nigeria. Major political shifts usually stem from larger causes or organized movements. For instance, the op­position to Jonathan’s re-election was driven by perceptions of broken agreements on power rota­tion. Similarly, in 2023, the “Obidient” movement, fueled by discontent from the South-East, weak­ened PDP’s chances, helping Tinubu emerge victorious.

Although there are signs of dissatisfaction in the North — particularly a sense of neglect despite the region delivering 62% of Tinubu’s 2023 votes — Tinubu’s political instincts may help him navigate this better than Jonathan did. His strategy seems focused on consolidating control over the southern states: Yoruba regions, the South-South, and the South-East.

While critics point to Governor Sanwo-Olu’s inability to secure Lagos votes for Tinubu in 2023, other governors like Ademola Adeleke delivered Osun a PDP state to Atiku. Thus, having key gov­ernors on your side still matters. Now with former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa, Governor Sheriff Obor­evwori, and political heavyweight James Ibori (leader of the Niger Delta region) aligned with President Tinubu, Delta State — and the wider Niger Delta — could swing towards APC in 2027.

In the South-South, other states could follow. Senate President Godswill Akpabio and Akwa Ibom’s current leadership could help flip that state too. Cross River is already under APC con­trol. Enugu Governor Peter Mbah is cozying up to APC, hinting at a possible defection. President Tinubu’s visit and praises for him recently fur­ther suggest warming ties.

In Anambra, Governor Chukwuma Soludo (APGA) may also align with Tinubu, especially since he won’t face re-election stress after win­ning a second term. Similarly, Abia’s LP Gover­nor Alex Otti, who has a strained relationship with Peter Obi and whose party is weak nation­ally, could also be swayed to the APC side, despite official denials.

Rivers State’s political crisis, led by the Wike-Fubara feud, could ultimately benefit Tinu­bu, especially now that most of Rivers’ National Assembly members have pledged support for his re-election. This political realignment across the South mirrors the 2013-2015 period, when north­ern politicians defected massively from PDP to APC to oust Jonathan.

Meanwhile, Imo and Ebonyi are already firm­ly APC, while Oyo and Osun are technically PDP but acted independently during the last election. It’s feasible that Osun, surrounded by APC states, could eventually flip too.

Overall, Tinubu appears to be managing the political chessboard masterfully. Despite ongoing challenges, he stands a strong chance of winning re-election in 2027. The forces gathering against him seem unlikely to match his political acumen or organizational strength. Unlike Jonathan, Tinubu is proving to be a far more formidable opponent.

Therefore, it’s unlikely that President Tinubu can be unseated in the same way the opposition toppled former President Jonathan in 2015. A Ugandan proverb offers some insight:

“It is survival, not bravery that makes a man climb a thorny tree.”

The current attempt by certain politicians to form a coalition against the ruling government is a desperate bid to wrest the presidency from Tinubu in 2027.

Former Zimbabwean President Robert Mug­abe once posed a poignant question:

“How do you convince future generations that education is the key to success when poor graduates and wealthy criminals surround us?”

Applying this logic, how can members of the PDP and other opposition parties be persuaded to stay loyal when their parties—particularly the PDP and Labour Party, which placed second and third, respectively, in 2023—are in disarray?

Realistically, who would willingly stay aboard a sinking ship?

It’s fair to say Nigeria may be drifting toward a one-party system—but whether this is by design or a natural evolution is debatable. Claims that President Tinubu and the APC are orchestrat­ing a “state capture” seem misplaced. The inter­nal crises ravaging the PDP and LP are largely self-inflicted. Their inability to manage internal divisions has triggered an exodus, as politicians naturally seek safer ground.

While Tinubu is focused on strengthening his base in the South, where he faced challeng­es during the last election, he hasn’t neglected his northern supporters either. Vice President Kashim Shettima, a Kanuri from the North- East and former governor of Borno State, still commands significant influence in the region. Moreover, Tinubu’s cabinet includes a substan­tial number of former governors and influential northern politicians who can help consolidate his support there.

Having secured 62% of his 2023 votes from the North, Tinubu is likely to intensify his outreach as the 2027 election approaches. He may also be counting on the positive results of his economic reforms—such as declining inflation, stabilizing forex rates, and infrastructure achievements—to sway public opinion and strengthen his position.

The mass defection of the PDP’s structure into the APC in Delta State could either stabilize or destabilize the APC locally, depending on how old and new members integrate.

Essentially, the APC is executing a hostile political takeover, similar to corporate mergers and acquisitions in business. Unlike 2013–2015, when opposition parties voluntarily merged to challenge PDP dominance, today’s defections are driven more by survival instincts than strategic planning. The politicians leaving the PDP are responding to the party’s collapse, preferring to jump ship rather than go down with it—an exo­dus vividly demonstrated by the mass movement from PDP to APC in Delta State.

As it stands, Nigeria appears headed toward a one-party system—another phase in its political evolution. Whether the APC will dominate for 16 years or eventually implode (as did PDP after 16 years) leading to the emergence of new parties, remains to be seen. Political evolution in Nigeria is dynamic, unpredictable, and often mirrors nat­ural survival patterns.

Yet, a pressing question remains: if the APC becomes the overwhelmingly dominant party, what credible alternatives exist?

Ironically, many of those trying to build a new coalition against Tinubu are themselves rem­nants of the fractured PDP—the very party from which people are fleeing into much like butter­flies flocking to nectar, the APC.

Ultimately, if Tinubu secures a second term and exits office in 2031, the critical issue will be: Will Nigeria’s next generation of leaders emerge ready to prioritize the nation’s interests and ele­vate Nigeria globally? Or will they simply repeat the same cycles?

Is anyone out there preparing true successors who will place Nigeria first?

• Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.

To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.