Flutter buoyed by strong US results in Q1 as CEO Jackson expounds on prediction markets

Global betting giant Flutter Entertainment lauded continued success in the US on Wednesday as it reported first-quarter group revenue of $3.66 billion, up 8% versus the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA of $616 million and net income of $335 million were also YoY increases of 20% and 289%, respectively.

Other gains included an 8% jump in average monthly players (14,880) and a 51% increase in adjusted earnings per share from $1.05 to $1.59. Cash on hand stayed flat at $1.5 billion with net debt of $5.3 billion. Revenue and EPS were fairly below consensus forecasts of $3.96 billion and $2.05, per Investing.com. The company’s stock was down 1% to $242.36 at market close Wednesday.

Flutter’s US business, led by FanDuel, posted an 18% YoY revenue gain to $1.66 billion, alongside $161 million in adjusted EBITDA, a 5x increase over last year. Conversely, international revenue was just under $2 billion, up 1%, with a 1% decrease in adjusted EBITDA to $518 million. The company noted that those figures jump to +3% and +2%, respectively, when calculated on a constant currency basis.

“I am pleased with the performance of the business during the first quarter, with the scaling of our US business driving a step change in the earnings profile of the group,” Flutter CEO Peter Jackson said in a release.

“FanDuel continues to win in the US, retaining leadership positions in both online sports betting and iGaming, while we saw a positive performance within International, where our scale and the competitive advantages of our Flutter Edge have been enhanced by the acquisition of Snai in Italy.”

All about FanDuel in the US

Sports betting and iGaming revenue in the US grew 15% and 32% YoY, respectively, Flutter said. AMPs increased 11% from the prior year. The operator boasted US market shares of 43% for sports betting and 23% for iGaming during the quarter, per the release.

The sports betting revenue increase is notable given industry-wide unfavourable results in March Madness when all four No 1 seeds made the Final Four. Handle growth of 8% was “in line with expectations with lower than expected basketball handle,” and multiple analysts asked for clarification on that point.

CFO Rob Coldrake asserted that handle isn’t everything and instead said “net revenue is the thing we really focus on”. Still, the company lowered its full-year US revenue guidance from $7.43 billion-$7.93 billion to $7.15 billion-$7.65 billion.

With regard to economic uncertainty tied to US tariffs and fears of a potential recession, Jackson said that the online gaming business is “resilient”.

“We have conviction that online sports betting and iGaming have strong defensive characteristics over the long term,” he told analysts. One-off adverse results and potential softening, he said, “do not compromise” growth plans.

Jackson: FanDuel committing staff to prediction markets

Jackson was expansive in his commentary on prediction markets, perhaps the most pressing topic in gaming currently. He noted Flutter already owns the betting exchange platform Betfair and seemed to indicate that Flutter would rather join them than fight them.

“We’re interested in the potential opportunity, we have brought some of our team who have experience in building these products and services from the Betfair exchange business and put them into FanDuel to help us evaluate the opportunities,” he said. “We’re working through it.”

This is the latest indication that top US bookmakers might look to move into the space. As of now, prediction markets are legal and Kalshi, in particular, has repeatedly defeated legal challenges in recent months. Earlier this year, it was reported that Flutter’s chief US rival DraftKings had applied to register “DraftKings Predict” with the National Futures Association. That application has since been withdrawn.

Product offerings set books apart

One analyst asked whether federally legal prediction markets result in more states legalising sports betting? Jackson responded, “If there is any benefit that we get from prediction markets encouraging faster [sports betting] roll-out, we’ll take it.”

He would not give further details on whether the company was planning to launch its own exchange. Flutter previously operated Betfair’s traditional exchange betting product in New Jersey, but shut it down in 2020 due to weak liquidity. A predictions offering available nationwide would not have any liquidity concerns.

Jackson’s main critique of prediction markets has been their lack of product depth. Traditional sportsbooks offer myriad parlay and bonus options, compared to single-game and season-long contracts on prediction markets. He reiterated that sentiment on Wednesday.

“Don’t forget, the vast, vast majority of people are betting on parlays and it’s just not something you can get close to experiencing, if you look at the way prediction markets are set up,” he said.

International steady

Not much discussion was given to Flutter’s international performance, but both of its top two non-US markets reported growth.

Revenue in the UK and Ireland grew 2% and southern Europe and Africa jumped 14% from last year. Central and Eastern Europe increased 15%, but Asia and Brazil fell 13% and 44%, respectively.

The one international development to garner interest from analysts was Flutter’s bid for the Italian lottery, which it filed in March through a partnership with Scientific Games. The company will now compete with incumbent IGT to win the nine-year contract for one of Europe’s most lucrative lotteries.

Sisal, acquired in August 2022, already powers SuperEnaLotto in Italy, as well as Turkey’s national lottery Mili Piyango.

Coldrake called it a “sizeable opportunity” to grow market share in Italy, describing it as low risk but highly profitable. Jackson also clarified that this was a “unique” situation and Flutter wouldn’t necessarily pursue other lottery tenders.