We’re only in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but as far as advanced metrics are concerned, we’ve already got a top-10 matchup in store tonight.
Houston is the top seed in the Midwest after an outstanding 31-4 regular season, but Kelvin Sampson’s team faces a stiff test tonight against 8-seed Gonzaga.
The Bulldogs are No. 8 in the country according to KenPom and No. 10 according to BartTorvik.
With that likely in mind, oddsmakers are giving them a ton of respect, as they’re just 4.5-point underdogs at FanDuel tonight. It’s notable that the other 8- or 9-seeds in action this weekend — Creighton, UConn and Baylor — are all at least 8-point underdogs.
Below, we’ll break down the best Gonzaga vs. Houston prop bets and ATS picks and pick who we expect to advance.
- Tipoff: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Channel: TNT
Gonzaga vs. Houston Odds: Spread, ML, Total
| DK | FD | bet365 | |
| GONZ spread | +5.5 (-115) | +4.5 (-110) | +5 (-110) |
| HOU spread | -5.5 (-105) | -4.5 (-110) | -5 (-110) |
| GONZ ML | +185 | +164 | +180 |
| HOU ML | -225 | -200 | -220 |
| Total | 140.5 (o-110; u-110) | 139.5 (o-115; u-105) | 140.5 (o-110; u-110) |
Best Player Prop Bets for Gonzaga-Houston
Milos Uzan 15+ points (+122 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
On the year, Uzan is Houston’s third-leading scorer behind veteran Houston stars Emanuel Sharp and LJ Cryer.
But it was Uzan who led the way in Houston’s run to the Big 12 Tournament Championship last weekend, with 14, 14 and 25 points in the conference tourney quarters, semis and final, respectively.
He has shot 50 percent or better from the floor in four straight games, including a lights-out 6-for-7 showing vs. 16-seed SIU Edwardsville on Thursday.
Gonzaga is rock-solid defensively, but I expect Uzan to benefit tonight from heavy attention on his sharpshooting backcourt mate, Cryer, who is a 42 percent 3-point shooter.
Uzan is +105 to score 15 points at bet365 and +110 to reach that number at DraftKings, but +122 at FanDuel, which makes this play all the more tempting.
In a game in which Houston will need all the scoring it can get from all five starters, I expect Uzan to reach at least 15 points easily. He’s averaged an impressive 17.3 ppg in four postseason games this year, and that’s despite playing 28 minutes or fewer in two of them.
Ryan Nembhard o8.5 assists (+105 at bet365) — 1 unit
Gonzaga senior Ryan Nembhard averaged an incredible 9.8 assists per game this year. Even against arguably the best defensive team in the country, Nembhard at plus money to go over 8.5 assists is a solid bet tonight.
He has a great floor as a passer (as evidenced by the fact he’s hit the 9-assist mark 22 times in 34 games). His assists ceiling is also virtually unmatched in college hoops. Nembhard has recorded double-digit assists 18 times on the year, including 13 or better in a whopping seven games.
Even in Thursday’s romp against Georgia, when the Zags jumped out to a massive early lead, Nembhard recorded eight dimes in 31 minutes, and he averaged over 9 assists per game in Gonzaga’s three NCAA Tournament games a year ago (including 12 vs. Kansas).
If you expect Gonzaga to keep this one close, consider a sprinkle on Nembhard to record 10+ assists, which is available at +180 at bet365.
Gonzaga vs. Houston Prediction, Best Bets
Gonzaga and Houston both feature as much veteran talent as anyone in the nation. At the risk of beating a dead horse, let’s mention one last time what a shame it is that one of these teams is going to fail to reach the second weekend.
Gonzaga could absolutely pull the upset tonight, but keep in mind that Houston has lost just once since Nov. 30 while playing a tough Big 12 schedule.
I’m going with the Cougars to extend that streak this evening — especially if first-team All-Big-12 big man J’Wan Roberts can play heavy minutes.
He missed the Cougars’ Big 12 Tournament semifinal and final wins over BYU and Arizona with an ankle injury, but returned for Houston’s first-round game. His presence be huge against Gonzaga’s strong Graham Ike-led front line.
Counter-intuitive as it may sound, I expect this one to be close from start to finish, but I still like Houston to (narrowly) cover the tight spread and reach a fifth consecutive Sweet 16.
Gonzaga vs. Houston Best Bet
- Houston -4.5 (-112 at FD) — 1 unit
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