Warriors vs. Rockets will be a battle for the future of basketball

Former NBA players and longtime fans complaining about the lack of offensive variety in today’s league has always been a major part of the sport’s discourse, and one that seemingly becomes more pervasive each year. Critics call the NBA a copycat league, where one team figures out an advantageous offensive scheme or action, and the rest of the teams follow suit and start running the same thing.

There certainly is some truth to that — basketball teams have always liberally stolen from each other’s most-effective schemes, as organizations in all sports do. But if you actually look around the league, there’s more variation than there’s ever been. The Celtics play isolation basketball in order to force defenses to bring two defenders to the ball, while the Cavaliers rely on ball movement and cutting to throw off set defenses.

Oh, and if you think every team is just chucking threes, you should probably watch the Oklahoma City Thunder and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who are doing nothing of the sort and are actually living in the mid-range en route to the league’s best record.

But perhaps the best illustration of the league’s offensive diversity will be the Golden State Warriors’ matchup against the Houston Rockets in round one of the playoffs. This series could be a battle for the prevailing offensive philosophy and the soul of basketball, and the future of NBA offense could rest in the balance.

The Rockets are a new twist on an old basketball truism

Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

On one side of round one’s most compelling matchup are the Houston Rockets, a team fully leaning into old-school tactics and strategy, but with modern-day athleticism and skill. Unlike most teams in the league, Houston starts and plays two big men (Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun) for large portions of the game. Contrary to modern beliefs about spacing and shooting — which suggest that opening up the floor by playing four or five shooters on the perimeter is the most effective offensive strategy — the Rockets are going for something totally different: the beat-you-up and out-tough-you approach.

Post All-Star break, lineups with Adams and Sengun are offensive rebounding a ridiculous 49.7% of their own team’s shots while they’re on the floor. They’re practically just throwing the ball at the rim and hoping that one of their bigs will clean it up. Think the NBA is soft and everybody is just shooting threes? Watch the twin towers in Houston, who are both spending lots of time in the paint and beating up anyone bold enough to venture towards the rim after seeing what happens to those who try.

The Rockets’ guard and wing play also exudes toughness and grit. They play ultra-physical on the perimeter and hand-check you into oblivion — Dillon Brooks is maybe the most 80’s-bad-boy-Pistons-esque player in the league and sets the tone for them defensively (and with his incessant trash talk). They also have Amen Thompson and Fred VanVleet; two physical, handsy defenders in their own right. Oh, and they’re led by a coach who not only embraces but encourages physicality and trash talk, as evidenced by calling out Steph Curry — one of the NBA’s most beloved and respected stars — for “crying.” Other coaches might allude to similar points in a passive-aggressive presser, but few would be as unabashed and blunt as old-school Udoka.

The Warriors are pushing small-ball to its natural endpoint

On the other side are the Golden State Warriors, perhaps the league’s most innovative offensive team. Of course, the Warriors being at the forefront of modern basketball tactics is nothing new. They’re credited with starting the small-ball revolution, and their famous “death lineup(s)” of the 2010’s are a perfect example of how they moved basketball thinking forward. While the rest of the league was still playing two big men who mostly loitered in or around the paint, Golden State’s most dangerous lineups actually had undersized, 6’6 Draymond Green at the center position and a combination of Harrison Barnes, Andre Igoudala, or Kevin Durant (depending on the year) at the wing spots.

This year’s Warriors squad is taking it even further. Not only are they still starting Green at center, but the rest of their lineup is even smaller than they’ve typically been; their “power forward” is Jimmy Butler, who’s only 6’7. They started the small-ball trend, but now they’re pushing it to new heights… with players who are closer to the ground than ever.

It all sets up a philosophical clash

The juxtaposition of these two styles — with the twin towers on one side and smallball on the other — presents quite the matchup. Will the Rockets’ frontline manhandle the Warriors to the point where they’re forced to go with Kevon Looney at the 5? Or, conversely, will Golden State’s off-ball movement and positionless versatility force Houston to match them with more speed and quickness? Both teams will likely come into the series attempting to play the brand of ball that’s gotten them to this point — 2000’s ball for the Rockets and modern small ball for the Warriors — but whoever is forced to adjust first could be telling about not just this series, but the future of basketball teambuilding and tactics.

That might sound hyperbolic, but it’s not crazy to say the outcome of this series could change NBA strategy moving forward. If Golden State wins, the league may lean even further towards having as many shooters and ball handlers on the court as possible, no matter their heights. However, if Houston pulls off the upset —they are the underdogs (+138 at Fanduel), despite being the No. 2 seed with home court advantage — the NBA could continue its shift back to something resembling a more athletic and dynamic version of 2000’s era hoops, highlighted by bullyball and massive front lines.

In short, the dominant offensive scheme in the coming years could be dictated, in some minor way, by whether or not the Warriors can prove they are once again light years ahead, or if Houston’s size can give them problems.