Prairie farmers can’t rotate crops on a dime, but tariffs leave them uncertain about what to do next

As tariffs by the United States on some products have begun to come into force, farmers across the Prairies are left wondering what the changing trade landscape means for them.

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“Just the talk of the tariffs has been worked into some of the prices already for our commodities,” Bill Prybylski, president of the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, said.

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He said the overall mood is one of uncertainty, but farmers were seeing some changes in the markets even before any tariffs were imposed by the U.S.

Prybylski said the Canadian government imposing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. imports could also have an impact on farmers’ businesses.

“Probably the biggest one would be our equipment if there’s tariffs going back and forth across the border with steel and parts, and then the final product coming in to Canada,” he said.

One of the crops most exposed to tariffs is canola. Prybylski said Saskatchewan farmers export both seeds and canola oil to the U.S. He said other value-added canola products could also be impacted.

“A good percentage of the meal that is coming out of crush plants is exported into the United States as livestock feed, particularly into the dairy industry,” he said.

Another crop that has large exposure to the U.S. market is oats. Prybylski said livestock producers, specifically those raising hogs and cattle, would also be impacted in a major way by tariffs.

Canada shipped less than 300,000 tonnes of canola seed to the U.S. in 2024, which accounted for less than five per cent of total canola seed exports, according to a report by Morningstar DBRS analysts Moritz Steinbauer and Reid Usher.

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However, the American market is much more vital when it comes to value-added canola.

“The U.S. is Canada’s No. 1 off-taker of canola oil and meal, with combined canola exports valued at $7.7 billion in 2024,” the analysts said.

The analysts said the impact of tariffs would likely depend on how long they remain in place, but it could have a negative impact in terms of trade flows and create a more volatile market that could cost the canola industry billions of dollars in lost revenues and higher operating costs.

In the long term, Steinbauer and Usher expect the industry to adapt as it did from 2019 to 2022, when China imposed restrictions on Canadian canola imports.

“We anticipate global trade flows will ultimately largely rebalance as volumes shift to and from other geographies to satisfy global demand,” they said.

In the meantime, Prybylski said he doesn’t expect farmers to make any changes to the kinds of crops they grow.

Most farmers plan their crop rotations on a three-to-four-year basis. In terms of his own operation. Prybylski, for one, is not planning on making any changes, nor has he spoken with anyone who has made changes.

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“Tariffs are applying to everything, so if you’re going to switch from one, where do you go from there?” he said.

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