MLS Golden Boot race: Who are the early favorites? | MLSSoccer.com

Four matchdays into the 2025 season, an intriguing Golden Boot presented by Audi chase is taking shape. More than a few surprises have me thinking I made some mistakes with my preseason predictions!

You’ll notice a common theme: We’ve got a real, actual strikers race.

In recent seasons we’ve seen the likes of Denis Bouanga, Carlos Vela and Hany Mukhtar – excellent players who score from wide areas or roaming playmaker roles – claim the Golden Boot. This year, I’m seeing a lot of old-school strikers produce. That seems to have left the game for a while and it’s good to see it return.

Tai Baribo is the frontrunner with six goals in four games for Philadelphia – all from just seven shots on target. That’s an unbelievable scoring rate and probably isn’t sustainable, given he’s running well ahead of his expected goals total (4.04). But I still think he’ll stay in this discussion for the long haul.

Why? It’s the way he scores. Philly’s system under new coach Bradley Carnell fits Baribo’s skill set so well – it’s high-tempo football, looking to press and push forward as quickly as possible, create turnovers to win the ball and then be no-nonsense with it, delivering early service into dangerous areas. Wide players like Kai Wagner and Quinn Sullivan are putting in tremendous crosses, and Baribo’s movement is both clever and efficient.

It speaks volumes that all six of Baribo’s goals have been one-touch finishes from inside the penalty box. It just feels like on any given day, there’s a brace out there to be had for him. He will get chances as long as he’s fit, so I give him a really good chance at winning the Golden Boot.

I’m bullish on Hugo Cuypers’ chances of keeping pace.

The Chicago Fire’s No. 9 has bagged four goals, scoring in three of his team’s first four matches, which tells me he’s getting into a rhythm and taking his chances well. What interests me about Cuypers is that last season, he scored regularly (10g/2a) even though Chicago struggled. Now they’ve improved under Gregg Berhalter, winning more games and creating more opportunities for him.

Cuypers has Brian Gutiérrez, Philip Zinckernagel and Jonathan Bamba – he’s low-key been one of the best winter signings thus far – feeding him, and he’s shown his well-roundedness with hold-up play. Most of all, and I say this as a compliment considering how many ugly goals I scored in my playing career, I see Cuypers scoring the scruffy sort of goals that you need. Those are no accident. He’s consistently getting into the right areas and is second on the scoring chart as a result.

A motley crew of eight players are tied for third on three goals apiece, and I don’t see all of them staying in the race. One who will is Christian Benteke, the reigning Golden Boot holder. He just keeps doing the business for undefeated D.C. United and ranks tops in MLS with 5.19 xG, much like D.C. lead the league with 10.37 team xG.

Here’s where I’ll hold my hand up because I left Benteke out of my top five at the beginning of the season. That was only because I underestimated D.C. United. I thought they’d be worse than last season, if I’m being honest. I made a mistake there.

The big Belgian will keep scoring because – as those expected goals numbers show – he gets at least a chance or two every single game, whether it’s one of those trademark Benteke headers, a one-v-one with a defender or a penalty kick. D.C. have learned how to play to his strengths with crosses from out wide – he’s going to win just about 100% of those aerial battles – and passing combinations that make the most of his back-to-goal abilities.

I’m a big fan, partly because of what I observed when we were teammates with the New York Red Bulls. The 2019 season was my last with RBNY and I was injured for most of it. Like every player does, I usually felt terrible when I couldn’t play; it was like I was letting the team down. But the hugest compliment I could give White is that when I saw him play, I didn’t worry about the team anymore. He was so capable, even at a young age. He could hold the ball up, goal-poach and deal with pressure really well – nothing seemed to faze him.

Now, with his attacking partner Ryan Gauld out injured for a few weeks, White has to figure out other ways to find his goals, be it striking up chemistry with Jayden Nelson, Pedro Vite or the Whitecaps’ energetic fullbacks. I think he’ll sort it out, especially with the guidance of new coach Jesper Sørensen.

• San Diego FC’s Anders Dreyer has also been excellent for the expansion side with three goals in four games. As crucial as he’ll be for his team this season, I don’t see him sticking in the Golden Boot conversation. The Dane’s game is about assists as much as finishing, perhaps even more so.

• I like what Colorado’s spearhead Rafa Navarro brings to the table, but I worry about the Rapids’ capacity to keep him fed. He’s outperforming his expected goals (three goals scored on 2.7 xG) and has been limited to 10 shots, only four of them on target.

• Though he too is on three goals, Emmanuel Latte Lath’s stock has taken a hit. The Ivorian striker’s God-given talent, speed and aerial ability will get him goals. But it seems Atlanta United aren’t using him as well as they could. If there’s a clear plan to feed him good service with regularity, I’m not fully seeing it at the moment.

• Minnesota United’s Kelvin Yeboah has all the qualities needed to push into this race – he’s got good feet, he’s a calm finisher and he can create shots for himself – yet he’s been dealing with a hip issue that limited his minutes last week. It’s very difficult to win this title if you’re not starting week in, week out.

• Alonso Martínez will get goals for New York City FC. He does most of his work between the lines of the 18-yard box and always wants to run in behind. He’s testing the back line and is a clean finisher. He had a breakout 2024 and is scoring goals at a steady rate early in the season. Keep an eye out for him.

• And then there’s Lionel Messi. If there’s one person who can tear down the dreams of all of these strikers we just mentioned, it’s Inter Miami’s icon, who opened his 2025 MLS scoring account in Atlanta over the weekend but already has three in CCC play as well. If I was chasing the Golden Boot, it would be so frustrating because the man is so deadly.

You can think that he’s not fully fit, that he’s being rested, he hasn’t played much – then he comes on and just makes the game look easy. His goals-to-game ratio is out of this world and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s breaking hearts come the end of the season.