NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket picks, upsets, plus Cinderella teams: Model simulates March Madness 10,000 times

Basketball

It’s no surprise that the Houston Cougars are a No. 1 seed in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket, but this could be the year they make it to the end. Kelvin Sampson’s team has been a fixture in the March Madness bracket for five straight years, making it to the Sweet 16 in all five trips. The Cougars made it as far as the Final Four in 2021, and this year’s potent offense appears ready for a deep run after going 19-1 in conference play this season and winning the Big 12 Tournament. Houston is slated to play No. 16 SIU Edwardsville to kick off the NCAA Tournament 2025. Should you back the Cougars to go all the way in the March Madness bracket 2025, or will their Round of 64 opponent be one of the 2025 March Madness bracket busters? Before making any 2025 March Madness bracket predictions, be sure to check out the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine

Their proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91 percent of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past six tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run a year ago and nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16. It also nailed Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016. There’s simply no reason to rely on luck when there’s proven technology to help you dominate your 2025 March Madness pools. 

Now, with the 2025 NCAA bracket being revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Basketball 2025 March Madness bracket games to watch

One of the 2025 March Madness matchups to keep an eye on: No. 8 seed Mississippi State vs. No. 9 seed Baylor in the East Region. Mississippi State is disruptive on the defensive end of the floor. The Bulldogs average 9.2 steals per game, which ranks 16th in the country. Mississippi State also uses its length to create contested shots, resulting in 4.6 blocks per game. Meanwhile, Baylor is led by forward Norchad Omier, who is averaging 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. The senior is connecting on 56.7% of his field goals and has recorded a double-double in 12 of his last 13 games.

Also in the East Region, BYU vs. VCU figures to be a pivotal 6 vs. 11 matchup. VCU burst onto the college basketball scene during the 2011 NCAA Tournament, reaching the Final Four under head coach Shaka Smart. The Rams have since reached the Big Dance 10 times in 12 seasons. VCU is one of the best defensive teams in the country, allowing only 62.4 points per game. BYU went through a coaching change during the offseason, but hasn’t skipped a beat under first year head coach Kevin Young. The Cougars went 24-9 overall and 14-6 in Big 12 play during the regular season. BYU is deep and balanced, with junior forward Richie Suanders (16.0 points, 4.4 rebounds per game) leading the way.

The third matchup to watch in the East Region features No. 3 seed Wisconsin vs. No. 14 seed Montana. The Grizzlies are making their first March Madness appearance since 2019 and they have only made it out of the first round once in 11 trips dating back to 1991. They should be full of confidence, however, since they have won 14 of their last 15 games and were runners-up in the Big Sky Tournament. Montana’s swagger could be a threat to Wisconsin, who were a No. 5 seed in last year’s tournament and lost to No. 12 James Madison 72-61. Senior guard John Tonje leads the Badgers with 19.2 average points per game, and the team will lean on him to help overwhelm a Montana defense that gave up 72.9 average points a night this season. You can see how far all these teams go over at SportsLine.

Basketball How to make 2025 NCAA bracket predictions

How far will those major programs go? And which Cinderella teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it is calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament bracket 2025? And which 2025 March Madness underdogs will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams you can back with confidence, all from the model that’s nailed 24 upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception and beat over 91% of players in four of the last six tournaments.

Read More CBS Sports Staff

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