Project starts have fallen by around a third in value over the past three months, driven by a decline in major projects and weak business confidence, according to the latest data.
The value of schemes starting in the three months to the end of February fell by 32 per cent compared with the equivalent period last year, Glenigan reported in its latest Construction Review report.
The data intelligence provider described a “freeze” on major project starts, with only a few £100m-plus developments getting underway during the latest period.
“This slowdown is due to delays in planning approvals, higher borrowing costs and weaker business confidence, prompting developers to delay investment until the economic outlook improves,” Glenigan said.
It also reported that detailed planning approvals fell by 21 per cent compared with the period between November 2023 and February 2024.
Glenigan said that while major contract awards (of £100m or more) rose by 35 per cent year on year, a 29 per cent drop in smaller awards offset this growth, raising “concerns about future project starts”.
Glenigan economics director Allan Wilen said: “The sharp drop in project starts reflects the ongoing struggles within the industry.”
He added: “While the surge in major contract awards suggests future activity, real sustained growth hinges on improved approvals.”
Wilen said the government’s shake-up of the planning regime under the Planning and Infrastructure Bill had the potential to be “transformative”.
But he added: “Its impact will be determined by how swiftly and effectively it is implemented. A key challenge lies in uncertainty over local authorities’ capacity to deliver reforms at the pace needed to unlock stalled projects.”
Glenigan said industrial construction was a “rare bright spot” with project starts rising 16 per cent year on year and warehousing/logistics jumping 70 per cent to £872m. The sector now accounts for 48 per cent of all starts.
But the analysts warned: “This growth may not be sustainable, as detailed planning approvals for industrial projects have fallen 20 per cent compared to last year.
“Without a consistent pipeline of approved projects, the sector’s momentum could swiftly fade in 2025.”
Meanwhile, separate data from Barbour ABI showed that the value of new orders in construction fell by 10 per cent to £7.6bn in February 2025, compared with the month before.
Barbour ABI chief analyst Ed Griffiths said: “Despite a fall in February awards, the improvement in 2025 continues, being 18 per cent up on the same period in 2024.”
As with the Glenigan data, Barbour ABI highlighted the growth in infrastructure, as the value of new orders increased by 76 per cent month on month.
“Infrastructure remains a bright spot, with continued government focus on renewables and clean energy pointing to continued growth in this sector,” said Griffiths.
Ahead of the chancellor’s Spring Statement on 26 March, he said it would be “interesting to see if any ‘big ticket’ infrastructure schemes are announced by Rachel Reeves”.
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James Wilmore