March Madness 2025 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, predictions from top-tier college basketball model

Basketball

The first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket will begin on Thursday and now that the 2025 March Madness bracket is set, fans are picking their winners and entering 2025 NCAA Tournament pool picks. The Houston Cougars were champions of the Big 12 and were awarded a No. 1 seed for the third year in a row. Kelvin Sampson’s squad was eliminated in the Sweet 16 the past two seasons as a No. 1, but this year Houston will be trying to make its way out of the Midwest Region and back to the Final Four for the first time since 2021.

Other 2025 March Madness contenders in the Midwest include No. 2 Tennessee, No. 3 seed Kentucky and powerhouse programs like Purdue (No. 4), UCLA (No. 7) and Gonzaga (No. 8). How far can you expect Houston to go in your 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket picks and who are the potential 2025 March Madness bracket busters that need to be on your radar? Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2025, be sure to see the 2025 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proven projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 91% of all CBS Sports brackets in four of the past six tournaments. It was all over UConn’s championship run a year ago and nailed 13 teams in the Sweet 16. It also nailed Alabama’s Cinderella run to the Final Four as a 4-seed.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 24 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

There’s no reason to rely on luck when there’s proven technology to help you dominate your 2025 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2025 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Top 2025 March Madness bracket picks

One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 2 seed Tennessee, despite losing to Kentucky twice this season, beats the Wildcats in the Sweet 16. Both games saw the Vols squander second half leads, and UK’s level of play has leveled off since that second victory on Feb. 11. The Cats have gone 5-4 since then, while the Vols have gone 7-2, including a run to the SEC Tournament Final. This potential matchup will pit Kentucky’s No. 4 scoring offense versus Tennessee’s No. 11 scoring defense, but it’s the other units that give the Volunteers the edge.

With all four of its double-digit scorers being seniors, UT is in the top-50 in offensive rating. Meanwhile, UK sits just 240th in the country in defensive rating as that is clearly the weakest unit in this game. The Wildcats force the fewest turnovers per game, amongst SEC schools, and they also allow the highest 2-point percentage in the conference. Six of their last seven opponents have hung at least 82 points on the Wildcats, and that type of porous defense will stop UK’s tourney run in the Sweet 16.

Another surprise: No. 10 Utah State upsets No. 7 UCLA in the first round of the Midwest. The Bruins have won more national championships than any program in college basketball history, but it’s been 30 years now since Ed O’Bannon and Tyus Edney led UCLA to its last title in 1995.

This season, Mick Cronin’s squad was only 7-8 away from home (5-5 on the road and 2-3 at a neutral site) and now UCLA runs into a Utah State squad that won a tournament game last season and has been dancing in five of the last six years. Ian Martinez is big game proven after starring for Utah State in the 2024 NCAA Tournament and previously playing at Maryland and Utah. You can see the model’s 2025 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2025 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which teams will make surprising runs through the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2025 NCAA bracket picks.

So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2025 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features three must-have upsets, including a play-in team that absolutely stuns its first-round opponent, all from the model that’s beaten 91% of bracket players in four of the last six tournaments.

Read More CBS Sports Staff

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