Ravens vs. Bills will be a kaiju fight between two of the NFL’s scariest monster offenses

Normally, I spend this section talking about a specific matchup. What one side of the ball needs to do to the other, or something that I’m watching. However, this kaiju battle between two of the best offenses in football actually reminds me of a quote from one of the world’s greatest scribes, Norman Osborn.

The titan-fight between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills is the pinnacle of bullyball in the NFL, a matchup between two teams that have morphed their offenses to become much more physical and ground-based en route to massive success in the NFL—oh yeah, and having Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen help too. These two offenses are very similar in their goals, but how they approach them is where the two paths differ.

The Baltimore Ravens are the zenith of physical football. With three tight ends they can play at any time, a 300-pound fullback in Patrick Ricard and a 380-pound guard in Daniel Faalele, blocking for a 250-pound Norse God running back in Derrick Henry. Baltimore loves to condense their sets and run power and counter, and are one of the best teams in the NFL at it. On those gap runs, Henry is second in the NFL in EPA per carry behind Saquon Barkley, and has an absurd 59.1% Success Rate on those carries. That’s also while facing the most defenders in the box. You know the Ravens are going to try and hit you hard, but then the problem becomes stopping them. I love how they use RB Patrick Ricard in influence motion, bringing him across the formation to get a running start, before Faalele comes through.

So, to calculate: as a defender, you have to hit 300-pound Ricard and 380-pound Faalele before you get the opportunity to even try to hit Henry. Good freaking luck.

Where they can build off of their influence power stuff is through their counter game, which they pulled out against Pittsburgh. You can see how Patrick Queen is so juiced up to try and get over the top of this run thinking the down blocks are coming from his right, but they switch it up and land a big play as he overruns it.

Now, just because the Ravens are in heavier personnel doesn’t mean that they can’t throw out of it. All three of their tight ends can be factors in the passing game now that Charlie Kolar is back, and the Ravens want to attack downfield while in 22 personnel. Baltimore has a blistering 0.42 EPA per play. Jackson has an Average Throw Depth of 8.4 yards out of 22 personnel, and offensive coordinator Todd Monken does such a good job of building in throws to every part of the field, attacking with TEs Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews (who has been incredible to finish the season). This throw from their week four tilt against the Bills stands out not only for the execution, but how both teams attacked each other. The Ravens run a beautiful sail concept with Likely split from the line and Andrews on it, but the Bills are in their base personnel. Lamar layers the throw and the Ravens get an explosive.

The Bills are actually pretty good against 21 personnel, allowing a -0.14 EPA per play. I think this is because it allows them to still play nickel against it, with slot corner Taron Johnson on the field. Johnson, along with LBs Matt Milano and Terrell Bernard, all missed the first Ravens’ game, so I’m curious if they’ll try and play their nickel against the beefier personnel of the Ravens. The Bills aren’t a gap control team. Against offenses that play a lot of 21 or 22 personnel, they try and sell out against the run, bringing too many numbers into the box for the run game to have any space. Against this play by the Broncos, it’s notable how they defended this play that resulted in a three yard gain. The motion brings Johnson into the box, but they spin S Damar Hamlin into the box late to get back numbers. Johnson whacks the FB, but Ed Oliver is able to eat a double team, allowing Bernard to move freely. This isn’t a gap run, but how the levers were pulled are notable.

It’s worth noting that the despite being very good against 21, the Bills give up a 0.26 EPA per play against 22 personnel and a 0.52 EPA per pass against it. Part of why I that number is so high is because they’re forced to be in their base personnel with three linebackers on the field. Do they play that card against Baltimore and pray they don’t hit explosive passes? Or do they play Johnson and hope not to give up the Derrick Henry lightning bolt?

Flipping it riverside, the Bills’ offense has morphed from being a spread and shred offense into a run through a MF’ers face offense, and they’ve benefitted from it. Despite not throwing the ball nearly as often in neutral situations, they’ve managed to have a higher EPA per play than ever before. It’s actually quite useful to run that damn ball, despite what reports may say.

Where they’ve been the most devastating is when they have their jumbo grouping in, with OL Alec Anderson. The Bills use their 6 OL package more than any team in the NFL, and they’re devastating out of it. They average five yards per carry out of this look and a 0.05 EPA per play, mashing people into submission. They can have him seal off the edge on toss plays, like this rep against the Broncos:

Or, bringing him in blast motion as a puller on YY Counter (it’s essentially like bringing another linemen around, but calling him a tight end is just funnier):

With Anderson on the field, the Bills can get big and mash teams, but can also be explosive throwing the ball out of it as well. They can line Anderson up in various spots, using him as extra protection for Josh Allen to throw the ball downfield. This gets teams in their base defense, where the Bills can win the chess match they play as well.

The Ravens have one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, and it’s largely due to the personnel they have up front. Instead of trying to shoot gaps and get penetration, they have 340-pound Travis Jones and 345-pound Michael Pierce up front to control gaps. This allows for second level flow from Roquan Smith and others at the second level. When you can get Jones playing like this up front and Broderick Washington controlling gaps, it allows Roquan Smith to play freely and snuff out this duo run.

Notice where LB Malik Harrison is. In these heavier packages Harrison is on the edge for the Ravens, where he has the thickness of a defensive lineman, but can be a coverage piece as well. I say can, but I’m not sure if the Ravens want him out in pass coverage very much. Even though he’s the off ball LB next to Smith, he’s used a lot as an addition on blitzes, keeping him out of many coverage responsibilities. If the Bills want to attack in the passing game