Basketball
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – After Wednesday’s 82-69 victory over Southern California, Indiana’s men’s basketball team has a 4-1 Big Ten Conference record. A quarter of the way into the 20-game schedule, it would seem that the Hoosiers are in good shape to make a title push.
Strictly speaking, Indiana is in position to contend to the end, but the Hoosiers’ Big Ten start has been built on a foundation of the Big Ten’s worst teams … while the tough games are still to come.
It’s true that Indiana hasn’t beaten the cream of the Big Ten crop. Between them, Minnesota, Rutgers, Penn State and USC are 4-13 in conference play.
It’s also true that the next 11 games Indiana plays feature the best teams in the league.
The metrics websites – kenpom.com and barttorvik.com – have all 11 of these games pegged as Indiana losses in their prediction models. Four of the games are predicted to be by three points or less, but the point is that Indiana still has work to do to demonstrate that they belong among the Big Ten’s best – at least as far as the metrics are concerned.
However, metrics don’t dribble or play defense. Where there might be on-paper dread there is also opportunity for Indiana. As of Thursday, 10 of these 11 games represent the chance for much-needed Quad 1 victories for the Hoosiers. (UCLA fell out of the NET Top 25 on Thursday. If the Bruins got back into the Top 25, it would also be a Quad 1 opportunity.)
So far, Indiana only has one of those valuable Quad 1 victories – Sunday’s 77-71 victory over Penn State at the Palestra in Philadelphia counts as a road win. The Hoosiers need many more to galvanize their NCAA Tournament credentials.
Here is the full list of the 11-game gauntlet to come for Indiana.
Iowa – Jan .11
• Game site: Iowa, 8 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Iowa NET ranking: 51.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any road win against a Top 75 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Iowa 84-81.
• Iowa scoop: As usual with the Hawkeyes, they have a gifted offense and a suspect defense. Iowa ranks 20th in offensive efficiency by Kenpom and 125th in defensive efficiency. Iowa has had extremes like a 97-point performance against Nebraska Tuesday in a win. The Hawkeyes gave up 116 points to Wisconsin in a loss last Friday.
Illinois – Jan. 14
• Game site: Indiana, 7 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Illinois NET ranking: 6.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any home win against a Top 25 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Illinois 81-76.
• Illinois scoop: Much depends on the health of Illinois freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis. He sat out Illinois’ Wednesday game against Penn State with a forearm injury. Not that it mattered to the Fighting Illini, who beat the Nittany Lions, 91-52. Illinois has scored 80 points or more in its last five games.
Ohio State– Jan. 17
• Game site: Ohio State, 8 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Ohio State NET ranking: 30.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any road win against a Top 75 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Ohio State 79-73.
• Ohio State scoop: The Buckeyes have won four of five. They tend to play to the level of their competition. Ohio State suffered a close defeat to twice-beaten Michigan State at home, but it was very fortunate to escape Minnesota with a double-overtime win Monday. Ohio State has not lost to a team outside the NET top 25.
Northwestern – Jan. 22
• Game site: Northwestern, 7 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Northwestern NET ranking: 53.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any road win against a Top 75 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Northwestern 72-69.
• Northwestern scoop: By the time Indiana plays the Wildcats, they might have fallen a bit in stature. Northwestern plays Michigan State, Maryland and Michigan between now and the Indiana game. Northwestern has lost two in a row, albeit both were road defeats. However, Indiana struggles against Chris Collins-coached teams, and Welsh-Ryan Arena is not an easy place to win at.
Maryland – Jan. 26
• Game site: Indiana, Noon. ET tipoff.
• Maryland NET ranking: 23.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any home win against a Top 25 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Maryland 77-76.
• Maryland scoop: Maryland rose in the rankings after an 11-2 start, but this is looking like a typical Kevin Willard team – tough to beat in College Park, vulnerable away from home. Maryland is 0-3 in true road games so far – though the Terrapins have been competitive in all three. Indiana recruit Derik Queen, all 6-foot-10 of him, has given Maryland expected punch in the paint.
Purdue – Jan. 31
• Game site: Purdue, 8 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Purdue NET ranking: 26.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any road win against a Top 75 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Purdue 80-71.
• Purdue scoop: Purdue has played a Big Ten schedule similar to Indiana’s. A home win over Maryland was solid. Besides that, the Boilermakers have beaten Minnesota (away) and Northwestern (home) and managed to lose at Penn State. Point guard Braden Smith has demonstrated his value for Purdue – he is currently sixth in Kenpom’s Player of the Year calculation.
Wisconsin – Feb. 4
• Game site: Wisconsin, 9 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Wisconsin NET ranking: 24.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any road win against a Top 75 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Wisconsin 82-74.
• Wisconsin scoop: Like the Hoosiers, the Badgers are inconsistent. Capable of scoring 116 points against Iowa, the Badgers also scored just 64 in a home game against Michigan. John Blackwell is having a fine sophomore season, and John Tonje has been a valuable transfer portal addition. Indiana’s history in Madison is justly infamous. The Hoosiers haven’t won in Wisconsin’s state capitol since 1998.
Michigan – Feb. 8
• Game site: Indiana, 1 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Michigan NET ranking: 11.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any home win against a Top 25 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Michigan 80-76.
• Michigan scoop: Michigan has the early lead in the Big Ten at 4-0. The Wolverines’ wins are legitimate and include victories at Wisconsin, USC and UCLA. With two 7-footers in Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf, Michigan shows you can win with two bigs as primary contributors.
Michigan State – Feb. 11
• Game site: Michigan State, 9 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Michigan State NET ranking: 18.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any road win against a Top 75 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Michigan State 78-70.
• Michigan State scoop: Somewhat quietly it seems, Michigan State has won seven in a row. The Spartans have only played three Big Ten games so far, so it’s hard to get a handle on how good they might be, though an 89-52 home victory over Nebraska suggests Michigan State’s high ceiling.
UCLA – Feb. 14
• Game site: Indiana, 8 p.m. ET tipoff.
• UCLA NET ranking: 27.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 2 opportunity for Indiana. Any home win against a team ranked 26-50 in the NET is considered to be a Quad 2 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: UCLA 71-70.
• UCLA scoop: After an 11-2 start, the Bruins have lost two straight to Nebraska and Michigan. Coach Mick Cronin questioned his team’s toughness after the home defeat against the Wolverines, never a great sign. The question with the West Coast teams is how well they travel. This is a tough trip for the Bruins as they play at Illinois four days before they play the Hoosiers.
Purdue – Feb. 23
• Game site: Indiana, 1:30 p.m. ET tipoff.
• Purdue NET ranking: 26.
• NET ramifications: This is a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana. Any home win against a Top 25 team in the NET is considered to be a Quad 1 win.
• Kenpom score prediction: Purdue 76-75.
• Purdue scoop: The last several seasons in this rivalry game were about how Indiana dealt with the game-altering size of Zach Edey. Without Edey, does Indiana have a matchup advantage against the Boilermakers? If Malik Reneau is back by this point, he and Oumar Ballo could create issues for Purdue. The question is whether Indiana’s backcourt could deal with Smith, Fletcher Loyer and emerging freshmen like C.J. Cox, Gicarri Harris and Raleigh Burgess.
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