World Bank Growth Projections Aligned with Beijing’s Measures
December’s PMI figures suggest that Beijing’s recent stimulus measures are beginning to take hold, aligning with the World Bank’s revised growth projections. The World Bank now projects China’s economy to expand by 4.9% in 2024, up from June’s 4.8% estimate.
While the World Bank’s revised 2024 forecast aligns with Beijing’s measures, the 2025 growth projection of 4.5% remains below Beijing’s 5% target.
The World Bank adjusted its growth forecasts based on recent trade terms and Beijing’s fiscal policy measures. Nevertheless, the Bank warned of lingering challenges, including the housing market and consumer wage growth.
Addressing domestic consumption could be crucial as US tariffs and a potential US-China trade war loom. In December, Beijing announced stimulus measures targeting consumption and broader domestic demand.
These measures may counter the impact of US tariffs on China’s economy and PMI trends. As the second largest economy, an improving macroeconomic environment may be crucial for export-driven economies, including Australia and the Eurozone.
The Hang Seng Reaction to the NBS Manufacturing PMI
Ahead of the PMI release, the Hang Seng Index declined to a low of 20,003.
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Bob Mason