How Tuesday night’s rankings will look…
The College Football Playoff selection committee’s first top 25 rankings of the expansion era come out Tuesday night. The grand reveal provides a closer look at where several unbeatens and one-loss teams stand with strength of schedule and quality wins being primary points of emphasis.
The committee tries to dig past strictly win-loss records and looks at the strength of opponents’ records, location of game and opponent winning percentage as well. Those detailed factors matter and the committee used SportSource Analytics — which provides detailed data evaluations on offense, defense and special teams to dive further — for more than a decade now.
In the 12-team expanded playoff, the top four seeds represent the highest-rated conference champions from the Power 4 and Group of Five ranks and receive first-round byes. There are five auto-bids given to conference winners from within that group. The remaining seven slots will be at-large selections. Expect the Big Ten and SEC to dominate that conversation.
RELATED: College Football Playoff and bowl projections in Week 11
Here are the projections ahead of Tuesday night’s official reveal…
1. Oregon Ducks (9-0)
The unanimous No. 1 for the first time in Sunday’s Week 11 AP Poll, the Ducks top the first playoff rankings, too. They hold one of the best wins after clipping Ohio State at Autzen Stadium and they seem to be strengthening as the season progresses. With only three games left in the regular season, all against inferior competition, Dan Lanning’s squad appears to be on the path to an undefeated season heading into Big Ten Championship.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (7-1)
Strength of schedule matters. And depending on your preferred metric, the Bulldogs have the toughest in the country. They won at top-ranked Texas, lost to then-No. 4 Alabama on the road in a thriller and stomped Clemson in the opener. Over the next two weeks, Georgia plays top 15s Tennessee and Ole Miss, so there is room to move up in the rankings even if the Bulldogs begin at No. 3.
3. Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
If the selection committee goes for drama with their first rankings, Ohio State at No. 4 could certainly garner considerable outrage, but we think Ryan Day’s squad will be at No. 3. With the Buckeyes coming off their win at Penn State, that was supposed to be a momentum booster in front of the selection committee. Perhaps it will be. In all, Ohio State has five wins over teams with winning records including a 56-0 drubbing of Western Michigan, which is unbeaten in the MAC. Losing by a point on the road at Oregon is this season’s best loss among playoff frontrunners.
4. BYU Cougars (8-0)
The unbeaten Cougars handed SMU its only loss on the road in September and torched Kansas State by 31 points a few weeks later. Those are the results that stand out thus far during BYU’s magical season. If the Cougars can avoid being upset this month, they have a shot at a top-four seed. Several SEC and Big Ten teams hope BYU wins out and enters the playoff unbeaten as the Big 12 champion since that will keep the conference to one playoff bid.
5. Miami Hurricanes (9-0)
Offensive firepower through Cam Ward drives Miami’s unbeaten record through 10 weeks of the season. The Hurricanes beat up on an ACC schedule with one win over a projected CFP top-25 team (at Louisville). By the time they get to Charlotte without a loss (projected), the Hurricanes should have at least five wins over teams with winning records. The non-conference destructions of Florida and USF were impressive, too.
6. Texas Longhorns (7-1)
The Longhorns beat five teams with winning records, including Vanderbilt, Michigan and Colorado State. Texas reached No. 1 in the AP Poll at one point this season before falling at home to Georgia. If you’re going to take a loss prior to November, that one’s much easier to swallow than an upset scenario. The showdown at Texas A&M a few weeks from now could determine placement in the SEC Championship for both teams and has major playoff implications.
7. Indiana Hoosiers (9-0)
Despite their school record-setting unbeaten start through nine games, the Hoosiers’ lack of schedule strength could harm Indiana’s initial ranking from the selection committee. That changes if Indiana beats Ohio State. But for now, do not expect the Hoosiers to be as highly-ranked in the committee’s first poll as they are in the AP Poll. Indiana has not played a top 25 team.
8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
Ranked wins over Texas A&M, Louisville and Navy have Notre Dame well inside the top 10, and rightfully so. The Fighting Irish played nearly flawless since the disappointing performance against NIU and get another chance at a banner victory this month against unbeaten Army. If Notre Dame finishes 11-1, Marcus Freeman’s squad could be on the verge of the No. 5 or 6-seed in the playoff given its body of work.
8. Tennessee Volunteers (7-1)
Early-season wins over NC State and Oklahoma away from Neyland Stadium looked great at the time, but the Wolfpack and Sooners floundered. Still, those two opponents have winning records, as does Alabama. The victory over the Crimson Tide is the feather in Tennessee’s cap at this point. The Vols would be inside the top five and unbeaten right now had they taken care of business at Arkansas. Swing games await at Georgia and Vanderbilt.
10. Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1)
The Nittany Lions beat two teams with winning records (Illinois, Wisconsin), and the road victory at USC is grows weaker with every passing Saturday. Penn State whiffed on its opportunity at a season-changing win against Ohio State, but should beat two bowl teams in Minnesota and Washington to 11-1 finish. Don’t be surprised if Penn State is behind unbeaten Indiana in these initial rankings.
11. SMU Mustangs (8-1)
Wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh should have the Mustangs bordering on top-10 placement Tuesday night. Winners of six straight, SMU likely faces Miami in the ACC Championship if this keeps up. The only loss came to unbeaten BYU by three points.
12. Texas A&M Aggies (7-2)
Mike Elko’s squad will be the highest-ranked two-loss SEC team, but the 24-point loss at South Carolina stings.
13. Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2)
Alabama’s statement win over Georgia carries this team. he Crimson Tide kept playoff hopes alive recently after blasting Missouri. The Week 11 showdown at LSU is decisive.
14. LSU Tigers (6-2)
The road win at South Carolina looks better and better with each passing week, but the opening loss to USC is damaging. LSU’s victory over Ole Miss keeps the Tigers ahead of the Rebels in the first rankings.
15. Ole Miss Rebels (7-2)
Game control impressed for Lane Kiffin’s group, whose two losses came in heartbreaking fashion. There are no wins over teams currently ranked, however, unless the selection committee tosses South Carolina inside the top 25. Saturday’s showdown against Georgia is season-defining.
16. Boise State Broncos (7-1)
The Broncos lost to the only ranked opponent they played this season at Oregon. However, the Ducks are still unbeaten and ranked No. 1, so if there’s a quality setback, that’s one you want to have if you’re Boise State. The win at UNLV holds water.
17. Army Black Knights (8-0)
Army moves ahead of Boise State in the Group of Five pecking order if the Black Knights beat Notre Dame.
18. Iowa State Cyclones (7-1)
One point is the difference in a single loss and unbeaten season thus far for Matt Campbell’s team. The Cyclones’ notable win came early on the road against Iowa, a team that looks like they’re going to go for a possible 9-3 finish.
19. Kansas State Wildcats (7-2)
The Wildcats might be inside the top 15 if not for Saturday’s upset loss to Houston given their body of work. Wins over Tulane and Colorado were impressive.
20. South Carolina Gamecocks (5-3)
Which three-loss team will be the highest-ranked on Tuesday night — South Carolina, Vanderbilt or Louisville? All have at least one win over a top-10 team and both the Gamecocks and Cardinals suffered all their losses to top-25 competition. Since South Carolina’s strength of schedule, game control and strength of record numbers (per ESPN’s FPI) all trump the two teams the Gamecocks will be compared to by the committee, there’s a good chance Shane Beamer’s squad will be out front.
21. Louisville Cardinals (6-3)
Louisville’s three losses all came by a single possession and Jeff Brohm’s Week 10 win at Clemson was one of the ACC’s most notable. In fact, it was the program’s first against the Tigers.
22. Vanderbilt Commodores (6-3)
The Commodores are a great story and played a competitive schedule with wins over Virginia Tech, Alabama and Kentucky. But that road loss to Georgia State in September really stings considering the Panthers are 2-6.
23. Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1)
Pitt has three wins over teams likely going to bowl season, but failed in its big-time opportunity at SMU. The upcoming tilt with Clemson determines the Panthers’ postseason placement considering they’re still in the ACC title race.
24. Clemson Tigers (6-2)
The Tigers have one win over a team with a winning record this season after Week 10, lost to Georgia by 31 points in the opener and just saw their lengthy winning streak in home night games end at the hands of Louisville.
25. Colorado Buffaloes (6-2)
One of the most-improved teams, Colorado’s first season in the Big 12 has impressed, but some of that is due to a soft schedule up to this point. The Buffaloes beat two FBS teams with winning records and lost to their only ranked opponent (Kansas State).
Laine Damron
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