Football
A generation ago, in a different sport, Reggie Jackson cemented himself as Mr. October.
Josh Allen is doing all he can to lay claim to Mr. December. He’s once again dominating in the fantasy playoffs, and taking an eraser to the history books.
Allen’s absurd play of late has been impossible to miss. He posted the best fantasy quarterback game of all time in Week 14 against the Rams (51.88 points), then backed it up with a 41.28 explosion in Detroit last Sunday. No quarterback has ever scored more fantasy points in a two-game sample, and it’s the fifth-best fantasy two-pack (regardless of position) of all time.
Now Allen gets to take aim at becoming the best December fantasy star ever. The top of the leaderboard is easily within reach, and I doubt the Patriots and Jets will slow him down the next two weeks.
It’s fun to lose yourself on Stathead, the search engine from the indispensable Pro-Football Reference. I ran a query on the best cumulative fantasy standard scoring (meaning no points for receptions) for a month of December, and the results were interesting.
Allen’s pursuit of history
Allen’s 2024 run is already 11th all-time despite him being one or two games behind those at the top. Allen has also charted on this list twice before, back in 2018 (13th all-time) and 2020 (15th all-time). No wonder they call this guy The Winter Soldier. Something about Allen’s game takes off in the late part of the season.
The simplest explanation comes from Allen’s rushing chops. His rushing yards per game jump every month over his career, as such: 30.3 yards in September, 32.1 in October, 41.4 in November, 45.3 in December. He also has 22 rushing touchdowns in December games, compared to 40 combined in the other three months.
When the snow trickles down, Allen goes to town.
Pass-catchers not coming along for the ride
Allen’s having this monster run and MVP season despite ordinary help in the pass-catcher room. Mack Hollins of all people leads this team in touchdown catches, a modest five. Khalil Shakir has been a fantasy hit, WR26 in half-point PPR, but Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid and midseason addition Amari Cooper (16-231-1 on 27 targets since joining the team) all go down as disappointments.
Some of the shortfalls are injury-related, although we should also mention the width of the target tree. No matter. Allen has shown he can carry this unit on his shoulders.
Who is ahead of Allen?
Most of the December stars Allen is chasing on that leaderboard are running backs. Marshall Faulk (first, fourth) charted twice in the Greatest Show on Turf Days. Larry Johnson (10th) took over the Kansas City backfield in the middle of 2005 — Priest Holmes got hurt — and single-handedly drove most of his managers to the fantasy finals, if not a championship. Clinton Portis (fifth, 2002) was a gas when he was healthy. LaDainian Tomlinson (sixth, 2003), Steven Jackson (second, 2006), Adrian Peterson (seventh, 2012), Todd Gurley (ninth, 2017); they all used to rule the fantasy world.
The two quarterbacks ahead of Allen used different maps to get there. Peyton Manning’s best passing year was the ridiculous 2013 campaign, when he dialed up a record 55 touchdown passes in his second Denver season. The Seahawks were careful with Russell Wilson’s usage as a rookie, but in his 2012 stretch drive he won fantasy titles with his legs (including 92 yards rushing and three touchdowns in Week 15). It’s been fun to see Wilson resurrect his career in Pittsburgh, but it’s nothing like the electric player he was through his 20s in Seattle.
Note: Data from above chart is from Stathead
The December list is not friendly to receivers, the variance position of fantasy football. Quarterback and running back scoring is much more stable week-over-week, which plays well on this type of leaderboard. If you work off standard scoring, we don’t see a cumulative December receiver until Drew Bennett (61st, 2004) and Odell Beckham Jr. (65th, 2014). If we switch to full-PPR scoring, OBJ jumps to seventh and Bennett slots 14th. Marvin Harrison Sr., Eric Decker and Josh Gordon all crash the top 20.
Should QBs be drafted earlier in fantasy?
A lot has been made of how this fantasy season has been defined by veteran running backs, but don’t lose what the brand-name quarterbacks are bringing to the table. Lamar Jackson is currently No. 3 on the Yahoo MVP list — the frequency with which a player shows up on the top 500 Yahoo Public League teams. Allen slots sixth, Joe Burrow 16th and Jalen Hurts 20th. You don’t find a value quarterback until Baker Mayfield charts in the 36th position.
When I’m working on team assembly in the summer months, I don’t spend too much time peeking ahead to December or grinding strength of schedule, that sort of stuff. The NFL is a snow-globe league and too many variables for December simply aren’t knowable months in advance. And for several years I’ve been wideout-focused with my early picks. In many seasons, that’s worked well as a strategy.
For many reasons, it’s been negative-EV (expected value) in 2024.
But I’m open-minded towards a strategy shift in future seasons. I always want a strong running back room — every fantasy manager does, even if they draft using something like Zero RB — and I know their weekly scoring comes with a high floor. But maybe I need to be more open-minded to what a star quarterback can do in the fantasy playoffs. Maybe there’s a lesson to this Allen stuff, after all.
Or maybe it’s simpler than that. Maybe I just need to make sure I have some more Josh Allen shares on my fantasy teams next year. Just make the playoffs, Josh Allen will take it from there.
There are two more weeks to go in December 2024. Pour yourself some eggnog and dial-up Buffalo on your primary screen. We are all witnesses.
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