Bowl Predictions 2024: Projections and Odds For Playoff Bracket and Top Matchups

The first edition of the 12-team College Football Playoff brings a new dynamic to the sport’s postseason.

The four first-round games take place on campus sites. The Texas Longhorns, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes will host contests on the weekend of December 20 and 21.

Ohio State is the smallest of the four favorites, but it is still projected to win by a touchdown.

The No. 9-12 seeds can be frisky underdogs in terms of the spread, but it may be hard for those teams to win outright on the road.

Clemson is the largest underdog across the four first-round matchups.

The Tigers won the ACC title on Saturday, but they underperformed in all of their other matchups with Top 25 programs.

Clemson went 0-2 against the SEC. It was blown out by the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1 and lost by three to the South Carolina Gamecocks two weeks ago.

The only advantage Clemson holds in the matchup with Texas is Dabo Swinney’s title-winning coaching experience. Swinney is one of two active head coaches, along with Georgia’s Kirby Smart, to have won a national championship.

Texas’ shortcomings came against Georgia twice in SEC play, and the lackluster offensive performances in both games stand out as its biggest weakness going into the CFB Playoff.

Quinn Ewers and Co. have playoff experience from last season, but they lost that game to the Washington Huskies.

Texas’ offense played well against lesser opposition, but it did fail to eclipse the 20-point mark twice against UGA and against a ranked Texas A&M Aggies team.

That’s the primary concern for Texas’ chances of winning, and covering the 10.5-point spread.

Prediction: Clemson +10.5

SMU and Penn State both dropped in the final CFB Playoff rankings because of losses in their respective conference title games.

The Mustangs and Nittany Lions each had strong seasons, but both teams did not beat a team ranked above 18th all season.

Each team displayed defensive flaws on Saturday. SMU gave up 34 points to Clemson and Penn State let up 45 points to Oregon.

Penn State’s defense has been the better overall unit in 2024, and the home-field advantage in State College may help that unit control the SMU offense.

The Nittany Lions held their last six opponents to 20 points or less inside Beaver Stadium.

The defense, led by likely first-round pick Abdul Carter, should be the difference-making unit for Penn State.

Prediction: Penn State -9.5

The rare in-state battle between Indiana and Notre Dame takes place inside Notre Dame Stadium.

Indiana was the darling of the CFB season under first-year head coach Curt Cignetti, but the Hoosiers failed to keep up with Ohio State in its most important game of the season.

The blowout loss in Columbus stands out when breaking down the matchup with a Fighting Irish team that thrived for most of the campaign.

Notre Dame’s early loss to Northern Illinois more of an exception to the team’s season-long form than anything.

The Irish won their last seven games by double digits, and based off Indiana’s performance in Columbus, a similar fate could await the Hoosiers in South Bend.

Prediction: Notre Dame (-9.5)

The closest game on paper is the No. 9-versus-No.8 game in Columbus.

Ohio State is a seven-point favorite over Tennessee, but there will be plenty of doubters in the Buckeyes after their disappointing home loss to Michigan two weeks ago.

Ryan Day’s Buckeyes beat Penn State and Indiana and put up 31 points on Oregon, so there is precedent for how they’ll play against a top-10 team.

Tennessee will go into Columbus with a freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava, and that could be a hindrance on the Vols.

Two of the Vols’ three defeats this season came on the road at Arkansas and Georgia. They only scored 31 combined points in those two games.

Ohio State still has a strong defense, and if it shows improvement from the Michigan game on offense, it can take advantage of its home field and set up a rematch with Oregon.

Prediction: Ohio State -7

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