Bitcoins
- Bitcoin opened October with an initial 8% correction, however it has since recovered some of these losses.
- CryptoQuant analysts report stagnant demand since July, threatening ‘Uptober’ optimism.
- Long-term holders are selling off Bitcoin, reducing exposure amid market highs and volatility.
- CryptoQuant’s CEO and other analysts caution against overanalysing macro factors, emphasising public consensus on Bitcoin’s long-term potential.
Bitcoin has faced challenges moving into the month of October. Trading at just over US$65k (AU$95.5k) in late September, it quickly dropped, losing 8% over the first three days of the month. Many had thought the ‘Uptober’ rally was cancelled, but BTC made its way back upwards again, at the time of writing trading for US$63,318 (AU$93,079).
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In a recent report, analysts at CryptoQuant wrote that sluggish demand could ruin ‘Uptober’. While the current market movement mirrors those of 2016 and 2020, demand has been stagnant since July, they added. They cited the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed in January in the US as potentially providing some relief on that front.
Analyst: LTH’s Taking Profit, Close Buying Positions
Now, in their latest research, the analysts are concerned about Bitcoin facing selling pressure as its value decreases and long-term holders (LTH) begin to sell off their holdings.
There’s a significant reduction in Bitcoin exposure among these long-term holders, who are possibly cashing in on their investments amid market volatility and the potential for new highs. This trend indicates a cautious approach from seasoned investors as speculators become more active in the market.
CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha wrote in a note:
There has been a recent sharp decrease of $6 billion (from $19 billion to $12 billion) in the LTH realized cap (blue), suggesting that long-term holders are likely taking profits or closing buying positions.
Amr Taha, CryptoQuant contributor
CryptoQuant CEO Says Don’t Overanalyse Macro Factors
However, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe thinks that the next stage of the bull market has already started, though he believes it to be “relatively boring”.
Drawing from his experience of previous cycles, he anticipates that this cycle will closely resemble the dynamics of 2017, marked by significant technological advancements in crypto and fresh liquidity entering the markets.
However, at times, focusing solely on price and other indicators may not be particularly useful.
Founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Ju, suggests that Bitcoin’s price is primarily influenced by public consensus rather than macroeconomic factors. He emphasises the importance of understanding the number of informed individuals who still reject Bitcoin, as this helps gauge the overall confidence in its long-term investment viability.
I feel that over 90% of those who study Bitcoin will eventually appreciate it, which, to me, indicates a high probability of Bitcoin’s long-term growth. Of course, this would need to be backed by surveys and statistical data, but that’s the sense I get.
Ki Young Ju, CryptoQuant
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