Men’s NCAA Tournament 2024: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

The final week of the college basketball regular season has arrived, and the bubble for the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament is constantly shifting.

While some one-bid and mid-major leagues are shifting into postseason mode, the big-brand conferences around the nation are wrapping up the season this week. Most programs have two games remaining.

Teams on the March Madness bubble are basically in must-win territory from here on out.

One outlier? Gonzaga. The longtime West Coast Conference power is done with the regular season, and a key victory in the finale may have punched the Zags’ ticket to the Big Dance.

Both the teams listed and stock direction are subjective but focus on schools that are projected near the Bracket Matrix cut line.

At this point, Nevada is close to being completely off the bubble in a positive way. While it feels a little ambitious to call the Wolf Pack a lock, they aren’t far from earning that label.

The recent highlight? Picking up a critical 77-74 win at Colorado State when Jarod Lucas banked in a half-court buzzer-beater.

Nevada is a quality 5-5 in Quadrant 1 games and 18-1 otherwise, so there’s a single “bad loss” on its resume. As long as the Pack avoid a home loss to UNLV on Saturday night, they’ll enter the Mountain West tournament with a very strong case for an at-large bid.

Even better for Nevada, a Q1 victory at Boise State on Tuesday should make Steve Alford’s squad a lock regardless.

Ole Miss roared out to an 18-3 start, capitalizing on a friendly schedule to demand a place in the March Madness conversation. Its outlook isn’t so great anymore, though.

As the slate grew tougher in February, the Rebels stumbled. They whiffed on would-be key Quadrant 1 victories over Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Alabama, along with a Q2 loss to South Carolina.

Since the start of that frustrating month, Ole Miss’ only two triumphs are against Missouri, which is winless in SEC action this season.

First-year head coach Chris Beard may need to conjure up a miracle in the SEC tournament for the Rebels to play in the Big Dance.

Villanova’s nine-season NCAA tournament run ended last year, and the Wildcats looked in jeopardy of missing March Madness again early on this season. That possibility still remains, but a 17-12 record looks a whole lot better than 11-10.

Back in January, the ‘Cats endured a five-game losing skid and watched their margin for error decrease rapidly. The tone is much different now.

Villanova beat both bubble-dwelling Providence to open February and March. Between those wins, the ‘Cats also defeated Seton Hall and Butler and had zero bad losses.

Meanwhile, St. John’s cratered from a solid 12-4 record to 14-12 in mid-February. The drought led to Rick Pitino’s sharp postgame comments after a loss to Seton Hall, which apparently resonated.

First, the Red Storm clipped Georgetown. They followed that up with an upset of Creighton and steamrolled a Butler team desperately trying to stay on the bubble, improving to 17-12.

Entering the final regular-season week, neither Nova nor St. John’s is a projected March Madness team. If either one wins a few more games, however—particularly in the looming Big East tourney—they may even replace a conference foe.

Providence may be the Big East team in the sights of Villanova and St. John’s.

The Friars have tumbled since a torn left ACL ended star Bryce Hopkins’ season. While they still have a real chance to make the Big Dance, their recent results aren’t good.

As part of a 4-3 month, Providence fell to Marquette in a blowout and—more problematically—lost at home to Nova.

That setback dropped the Friars to 18-11 and tied for sixth in the conference standings. With a clash against Connecticut looming, Providence is soundly at risk of an early Big East tournament matchup with a top-three seed in UConn, Marquette or Creighton.

Long story short: Providence might only add victories over 20-loss Georgetown and a potential low-seed conference tourney foe—possibly Georgetown again—to its resume.

Goodbye, bubble. Hello, NCAA tournament.

Already a riser behind six straight wins, Gonzaga began the final week of its regular season with a Quadrant 1 victory at San Francisco. Even better, the Bulldogs then toppled WCC champion Saint Mary’s on the road.

Sure, there still may be a chaos-filled sequence that leaves Gonzaga out of the March Madness field. But in all likelihood, the Zags are in.

Gonzaga opens the WCC tournament in the semifinals. If the Zags win that contest to avoid a possible bad loss, they will be stone-cold locked into their 25th straight trip to the Big Dance.

As quickly as Wake Forest improved its resume with an upset of Duke in late February, two ensuing losses have damaged the Demon Deacons’ case.

The setback at Virginia Tech was a Quadrant 1 loss, so it wasn’t a crushing result. The greater issue is that Wake Forest had just flopped at Notre Dame, a Quadrant 3 opponent at the time.

If there’s a bright side for Wake, it’s that Notre Dame’s surging form—the Fighting Irish also defeated VT and Clemson recently—means the disappointing night in South Bend doesn’t look quite as miserable anymore. Nevertheless, it’s still a bad loss at a bad time.

Wake Forest caps the regular season at home opposite Georgia Tech and Clemson. Two victories would go a long way toward solidifying the Demon Deacons’ resume.

In a recent three-week stretch, Iowa alternated losses and wins for eight straight games. But that final victory—an overtime win against Wisconsin—sparked a timely surge for the Hawkeyes. They followed that upset with a Quadrant 1 win at Michigan State.

(By the way, MSU narrowly avoided a “down” section here. If the Spartans lose to Indiana during the final week of the regular season, they could be squarely on the bubble.)

After falling at Illinois, the Hawkeyes toppled Penn State before defeating Northwestern on the road. That latter triumph handed Iowa its third Quad 1 victory in a 15-day span.

Why is that significant? As of this writing, the Hawkeyes have three Q1 wins all season.

Iowa is barely on the Bracket Matrix radar, but that’s a massive improvement from the team’s situation in mid-February.