Fantasy Football Expert Analysis for Bijan Robinson, NFL Draft 2023 Day 1 Rookies

With the first round of the NFL draft in the books, it’s time to talk fantasy football. Namely, to break down which of the offensive players selected on Thursday night will have an instant impact for fantasy players, and which rookies you should try to avoid.

Let’s get to it.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Let’s not mince words—Robinson is immediately an RB1 option in fantasy. Yes, Tyler Allgeier rushed for over 1,000 yards last year as a rookie. No, you don’t take a running back in the top 10 with the intent of saddling him in a running back committee.

Robinson is going to eat. He might be a top-five option as a rookie.

There will be question marks. Will Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson steal some touches? Will an Atlanta staff that hasn’t utilized tight end Kyle Pitts to his full potential be too conservative with Robinson too?

Maybe. But more than likely, Atlanta fell in love with him enough to make him a top-10 pick. That’s very rare for the running back position these days. You don’t allocate those types of resources to a running back unless you intend on making him a focal point of your offense.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions stunned the NFL world on Thursday night, selecting Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 overall. It wasn’t only a surprise to see him go that high, but it also came as a shocker to see a team with D’Andre Swift and David Montgomery already on the roster go after a running back.

It could mean that Swift is on the way out—you don’t draft a running back at No. 12 just to sit him behind two other players. Gibbs should hit the ground running in Detroit and seems like a safe bet to at least have flex upside for fantasy players.

It was a surprising pick. It seems likely that Swift will be moved, however. If that happens, Gibbs could see his stock rise even higher to RB2 ranges. Consider this a situation worth monitoring.

The Quarterbacks

Generally speaking, it’s both risky and unwise to trust a rookie quarterback from a fantasy perspective.

Exactly one rookie quarterback in the past four seasons has finished top-10 in fantasy points: Justin Herbert in 2020, and he finished ninth.

Yes, Bryce Young in Carolina and C.J. Stroud in Houston will likely be immediate starters. However, neither is in such a dynamic offense that you should expect them to be QB1 options immediately.

And then there’s Anthony Richardson, who feels like more of a project than either Young or Stroud and may not see a ton of playing time in his first season.

Obviously in dynasty leagues, all three players are very valuable. But in redraft leagues, make other plans.

The Wide Receivers

More in more in fantasy, rookie wideouts are making an impact. Still, it’s hard to see any players on the level of a Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase or Garrett Wilson in this draft class.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is going to be the third option in Seattle’s passing attack behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Ditto for Quentin Johnson in Los Angeles behind Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.

Zay Flowers has big-time explosiveness, but the Baltimore Ravens have Mark Andrews, Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman already available for Lamar Jackson and like to run the ball quite a bit. And Jordan Addison will be getting Jefferson’s scraps, though he has a greater path toward substantial targets than the other three rookie wideouts taken in the first round.

Injuries could play a part, or one of the players could emerge as an immediate difference-maker. But for now, don’t bank on any of them making the sort of instant impact of other recent rookie wideouts. This seems more likely to be a tame year for rookie wideouts in fantasy.

Keep them in the WR4 mix instead.