Making Sense of NFL Backfields After RB Movement in Free Agency

At no other position in football is the disconnect between the NFL and fantasy football more glaring than at running back.

In fantasy football, running back remains arguably the most important position in the game. If you want to win a championship, a strong backfield is a must.

But in the NFL, running back is maybe the least valued position in the sport. Teams still want to run the ball—they just don’t want to spend anything to do it. More than one pricey veteran starter has been cut this offseason. Others still could be released or traded. And quite a few fantasy-relevant runners have had to change teams to get a new contract.

Some backs have seen their fantasy value increase as a result of all this player moment. Others have not been so fortunate. Either way, as we approach the end of free agency’s first week, one thing is certain—there are a lot of backfields facing uncertainty right now.

Here’s a look at those backfields—and an early effort to make heads or tails out of how they will shake out.

The Detroit Lions headed into 2023 with something that has been in precious short supply in the Motor City in recent years—hope.

But where the Lions’ backfield is concerned, that hope has given way to something else for fantasy managers—confusion.

After pacing the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns a year ago, Jamaal Williams is gone. He signed a three-year deal to join the New Orleans Saints. It’s not overly surprising that Williams left, and in anticipation of that departure many hoped that D’Andre Swift would see a sizable bump in usage in 2023.

So much for that.

Before Williams even put pen to paper in New Orleans, the Lions had already replaced him, signing David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million contract. And while Swift has been far more effective on a per-touch basis than Montgomery to this point in their careers, Heath Cummings of CBS Sports believes Montgomery will lead the Lions in backfield touches.

“My way-too-early projections have Montgomery at 253 carries and 41 targets, producing 213 PPR Fantasy points,” Cummings said. “Swift projects for 113 carries and 76 targets for an even 200 PPR Fantasy points. Swift still has more upside, but past injury history suggests it’s likely Montgomery finds himself alone in this backfield for a month, which would make him a top-12 running back. For now, I’d look for both backs around the four-five turn in redraft leagues.”

The Lions were 11th in the league in rushing last year, and Detroit’s offensive line is among the best in the game. If one of these backs became a three-down workhorse, he could be a real difference-maker. Montgomery could still be a decent RB2—especially if he (as expected) inherits Williams’ role at the goal line.

But a 60/40 split in touches is most assuredly not what fantasy managers wanted to hear.

Unlike many of the teams listed in this piece, the Miami Dolphins didn’t make a ton of huge changes in the backfield this year.

But the fact they didn’t is surprising in and of itself.

Given that the Dolphins ranked 25th in the league in rushing last year, more than a few analysts pointed to Miami as a team that could look to upgrade the backfield in free agency. However, the Dolphins did the opposite—doubling down on the guys already on the roster.

After leading the team in rushing yards with 891 in 2022, Raheem Mostert signed a two-year, $5.6 million contract. Jeff Wilson Jr., who joined the Dolphins in-season last year, got $6 million over two years. Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin both got one-year deals.

To say that this is a less-than-ideal situation for fantasy purposes is the mother of all understatements. There’s a reason Mostert’s and Wilson’s contracts were nearly identical—after Wilson joined the team midseason, their production was nearly identical too.

That’s about as close to a true 50/50 split as you’re going to see.

Mostert finished last year just outside the top 25 in PPR fantasy points, and he has relatively low mileage for a player his age (30). Both he and Wilson were effective on a per-touch basis, each averaging at least 4.7 yards a carry. If either was in line to get 225-plus touches, he would be on the RB2 radar—at least.

But barring an injury, even Mostert’s 212 touches from 2022 could be hard to repeat—and both he and Wilson will be relegated to high-variance “flex” territory.

This was going to be the year. With Damien Harris hitting free agency, this was going to be the season that the New England Patriots would stop raining on fantasy parades with maddening committee attacks. After topping 1,000 yards and averaging five yards per carry in 2022, Rhamondre Stevenson was going to be “the guy.” Goodbye RBBC. Hello top-12 numbers—again.

We should have known Bill Belichick would try to ruin it, because he hates joy.

For some, New England’s decision to add James Robinson is a red flag. After all, it wasn’t that long ago (2020) that Robinson posted a 1,000-yard season. His skill set is similar to Harris’—a punishing downhill between-the-tackles guy. His receiving chops are better than Harris’.

However, as Chris Towers of CBS Sports pointed out, that was before Robinson tore his Achilles. Concerns about him cutting into Stevenson’s workload may be overblown.

“Robinson looked like a much-diminished version of himself coming back from a torn Achilles last season, and while it’s not unreasonable to think he could do better a full year further removed from the injury, I think it’s pretty unlikely,” he said. “Remember, the Jets traded for Robinson after losing Breece Hall and then had him as a healthy scratch down the stretch. Robinson was dead last among all qualifying runners in the rate of his carries that went for more yards than expected, based on blocking and defensive positioning last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and if he’s the most notable competition the team brings into the RB room, I think Stevenson’s path to top-12 upside is pretty clear.”

Stevenson was eighth among running backs in PPR points last year, so a second consecutive RB1 season (provided he remains healthy) is well within reach.

This is a matter of some fantasy managers living in the past when there were muddied backfields in Beantown and Robinson would have been a bigger threat to Stevenson.

Live in the now. Stevenson will be fine.

It’s a time of considerable change in New Orleans as the team begins the Derek Carr era. Those changes extend to the backfield as well.

After exploding for an NFL-high 17 touchdowns on the ground in 2022, Williams got $12 million over three years to come to the Big Easy. He will ostensibly fill the same role Mark Ingram did in the past—as the “thunder” complement to Alvin Kamara’s “lightning.” In 2017, both Ingram and Kamara piled up at least 1,100 total yards and finished inside the top 10 in PPR fantasy points.

Expecting a repeat of those lofty numbers might not be especially realistic. But Jennifer Eakins of 4For4 sees the potential for value with Williams given his relatively modest ADP.

“Williams can’t possibly live up to the 17 touchdowns from 2022, but he lands in a great spot with a run-heavy scheme and a QB who loves to pepper his backfield with targets,” she wrote. “A fantasy RB2 outcome seems like a legitimate possibility, and for now, the new Saint carries an ADP 113.1 as RB36, but that should rise following Wednesday’s news. Kamara is being drafted six spots before him as the RB30, with an Underdog ADP of 95.2.”

Williams has some upside—especially if Kamara draws a personal conduct suspension for being indicted for an alleged assault. But doubts about Kamara’s availability for a chunk of the 2023 season aren’t the only ones that loom over this backfield.

Kamara’s four total touchdowns in 2022 were a career low, and he hasn’t averaged more than four yards a carry in either of the last two seasons. Last year was the first 1,000-yard season of Williams’ career, he has averaged less than four yards a pop in half his pro seasons, and those 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022 were more than his first five years combined.

Could Williams and/or Kamara beat expectations in 2023? Sure. But it’s equally likely that the Saints backfield will be a muddied mess in which one week Kamara is the primary ball-carrier and the next it’s Williams.

Both are risky RB2—at best.

We knew that the Philadelphia Eagles were going to have to make some difficult choices in 2023—they were both short on cap space and staring down the barrel of an extension for quarterback Jalen Hurts that could average over $45 million per year.

There were going to be player departures. And after becoming the first Eagles back since LeSean McCoy in 2014 to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in a season, Miles Sanders was among them.

In an effort to add to the backfield on the cheap, the Eagles agreed to terms on a one-year deal with Rashaad Penny, who spent his first five seasons in Seattle. Per Michael Fabiano of Sports Illustrated, when Penny has been healthy he has demonstrated top-10 fantasy upside. But that “when healthy” caveat with Penny is a whopper.

“Penny has averaged 6.2 yards per attempt over the last two years,” Fabiano said. “That included a bust-out second half of 2021 when he was a league winner in fantasy football. The problem, of course, is that Penny is rarely ever healthy. He’s been limited to a mere 42 games over his five seasons in the NFL, and he played in just five games last year because of injuries. That’s a trend that might never change for the veteran.”

Over a five-week stretch to close the 2021 season, Penny was second among running backs in PPR points. From a talent perspective, he’s easily the best back on Philly’s roster at present. A healthy Penny behind the Eagles’ stout offensive line could be lethal.

But the Eagles could still add another running back, and even if they don’t Penny’s durability concerns can’t be ignored.

The Eagles were fifth in the league in rushing last year. There are fantasy points to be had.

But whether it’s Penny, Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott or another back who earns them is by no means certain.

Last year, no team in the NFL had a more punchless rushing attack than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The team averaged a pitiful 76.9 yards on the ground.

After averaging a woeful 3.5 yards per carry last year, Leonard Fournette was already shown the door.

But surprisingly, Tampa hasn’t done much to replace him yet. Yes, the Bucs signed Chase Edmonds. But Edmonds averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year and failed to gain 250 yards on the ground.

Some have speculated that Fournette’s release could be a bonanza for second-year back Rachaad White. But as Jason Katz wrote for Pro Football Network, the harsh reality is that White was no more effective in 2022 than Fournette was.

“White’s evaded-tackles-per-touch rate was just a single percentage point better than Fournette’s,” Katz said. “His 2.54 yards created per touch was 0.3 worse. His 4.3 yards per touch was 0.2 worse. He was less involved in the passing game despite being billed as a receiving back. Nothing about White’s performance suggests he is capable of being a lead back in the NFL, let alone a three-down back. The Bucs drafted White at the very end of the third round. That is not exactly the type of draft capital that gives running backs substantial job security. Nor does it provide an inside track to the job.”

There have already been reports that the Buccaneers could have interest in Ezekiel Elliott, who like Fournette was released after a miserable 2022 season. Whether it’s a veteran like Elliott or a rookie picked early in the 2023 draft, Tampa’s lead back this year likely isn’t even on the team yet.

A number of other NFL backfields remain in flux as we move deeper into free agency.

Buffalo Bills

Devin Singletary is a free agent, and the Bills don’t appear overly inclined to bring him back. Buffalo spent a second-round pick on James Cook in 2022, and Cook flashed at times as a rookie. The Bills could seek out a veteran to join Cook, such as free agent Kareem Hunt or trade target Austin Ekeler.

Carolina Panthers

On the surface, the newly acquired Miles Sanders appears to be locked in as an every-down back in Carolina–a role that could make his RB15 finish in 2022 relatively easy to duplicate. However, Sanders has missed time in two of the last three seasons and has topped 200 carries only once, so it’s possible the Panthers will look to add another back to the mix.

Chicago Bears

With David Montgomery gone, Khalil Herbert is in line to take over as the nominal No. 1 back for the Bears. However, Herbert also missed four games in 2022, and his career high in carries is only 129. With the Bears adding D’Onta Foreman on Thursday, this is another backfield that could be headed toward a full-blown committee.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals have already lost Samaje Perine in free agency, and there has been talk that the team could move on from Joe Mixon for some time. As of now, Mixon remains on the team. But if the Bengals do cut bait, it will necessitate Cincinnati adding at least one back in free agency or the draft. That or turn the ground game over to a player in Chris Evans who has 17 career carries.

Dallas Cowboys

With Ezekiel Elliott no longer on the team, Tony Pollard appears to have a clear path to lead-back duties in Dallas. But Pollard has never carried the ball even 200 times in a season, so it remains a real possibility that the Cowboys will add another back. In fact, Bijan Robinson of Texas has been a popular target for Dallas in mock drafts.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos lured Samaje Perine away from the Cincinnati Bengals to serve as injury insurance in case young bruiser Javonte Williams isn’t ready for Week 1. Broncos GM George Paton said at the combine that Williams is “on track” to be ready for the season opener, but after tearing multiple ligaments in his knee last October, that’s far from a sure thing.

Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler has a whopping 38 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and no running back scored more PPR fantasy points in 2022. But as Ekeler seeks a new contract, the Chargers have given the 27-year-old permission to seek a trade. If that deal comes to fruition, it will blow up two backfields—and while Joshua Kelley has been OK in Ekeler’s stead, he and youngster Isaiah Spiller are hardly proven options.

Minnesota Vikings

With a cap hit north of $14 million in 2023, the future of Dalvin Cook in Minnesota has been a hot topic of conversation recently. The Vikings already brought back Alexander Mattison on a two-year deal, but if Cook is released or traded, it could easily motivate the Vikings to add backfield depth in this year’s draft.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers’ Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter @IDPSharks.