Jimmy Garoppolo Could Be the Biggest Steal of 2023 NFL Free Agency

The eyes of the football world are currently on the NFL Scouting Combine, with a particular focus—as usual—on the first-round-caliber quarterbacks who will either throw or not throw but will all be present in Indianapolis.

In the meantime, not leaving the football world’s peripheral vision are up-in-the-air quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr. The Baltimore Ravens will soon likely have to hit Jackson with the franchise tag to prevent the 2019 MVP from becoming an unrestricted free agent later this month, Rodgers’ future with the Green Bay Packers is undecided as he contemplates his next move, and Carr is already on the market following his release from the Las Vegas Raiders.

That’s a lot of quarterback-related intrigue!

All of which might make it easy to forget that the NFC’s highest-rated qualified passer from the 2022 season will become a free agent on March 15.

In fact, we’re talking about the sixth-highest-rated qualified passer in NFL history. He’s 31 years old and in the midst of what is likely his prime, his teams are 40-17 when he serves as the starting quarterback and he’s coming off an excellent season.

So why is nobody talking about Jimmy Garoppolo?

Again, we’re all a bit distracted right now, and events related to the rookie class as well as Jackson, Rodgers and Carr are more pressing. Nothing can happen with Jimmy G for a couple more weeks. When the new league year launches, he’ll undoubtedly be a focal point during the initial wave of free agency.

But because teams fall in love with prospects like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson, and because players like Carr, Rodgers and Jackson are/could become available and have bigger names and longer resumes, it’s entirely possible Garoppolo will continue to receive less attention than his own resume indicates he’s worth come the start of free agency.

Yes, Garoppolo can be fragile. Injuries have caused him to miss significant time in three of his five full seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, and in another of those campaigns he played through a major injury to his throwing hand. Only once in nine years has he started an entire NFL season, although obviously he was behind Tom Brady for four years in New England.

And no, he doesn’t have a rocket launcher for an arm. But I’m not sure we’re appreciating just how efficient and reliable Garoppolo has been when healthy.

The 2014 second-round pick actually owns the highest qualified yards-per-attempt average in modern NFL history. (Almost) all he does is win, mainly because he (almost) never makes killer mistakes.

But that doesn’t mean he’s just a custodian, either. A high YPA can be a product of safe passing within strong offenses, especially if a quarterback has receivers capable of picking up significant yards after the catch. And Garoppolo did rank well below the league median (3.7) with an average of 3.2 completed air yards per pass attempt in 2022. But he actually ranked at or well above the qualified median in that metric in his previous two relatively full NFL seasons.

In the right offense, with an adept offensive coach capable of utilizing his skill set the way guys like Josh McDaniels and Kyle Shanahan have, it’s clear Garoppolo has the ability to start for a Super Bowl team.

“Start for,” not “carry.” But quarterbacks who can carry rarely get near the open market. Garoppolo is uniquely positioned because San Francisco has an embarrassment of young riches at the sport’s most critical position, and now a lucky team looking for a historically dependable and sometimes exceptional signal-caller to take the next step might have a chance to land one at somewhat of a discount because there are so many other horsies on the 2023 offseason quarterback carousel.

Who might that lucky team be? The Raiders come to mind considering the talent they have entering the post-Carr era; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make sense as they look to remain contenders following Tom Brady’s latest retirement; and the New Orleans Saints, New York Jets and Washington Commanders all had top-10 defenses in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders but were handcuffed by poor and/or inconsistent quarterback play in 2022.

If any of those squads lands Garoppolo and he can put together a healthy season or two in the years to come, it won’t regret taking a shot at one of the most underappreciated free agents the league has ever seen.