Project-starts and main contract awards suffered declines during Q4 2022 while detailed planning approvals more than doubled.
Wales overview
Totalling £595m, underlying work starting on-site (less than £100m in value) in Wales during Q4 2022 remained unchanged against the preceding quarter on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis but increased 51 per cent against the previous year. No major projects (£100m or more) started on-site during the period, but this was unchanged on the preceding quarter and previous year.
Main contract awards in Wales decreased 54 per cent against the preceding quarter as well as 18 per cent against the previous year to total £612m. Major project contract awards, at £169m, decreased by 79 per cent against the preceding quarter but were up against the previous year when no major projects reached the contract awarded stage. Underlying contract awards performed poorly, having decreased 33 per cent (SA) against the preceding quarter and 41 per cent against the previous year to total £443m.
Adding up to £1.49bn, detailed planning approvals in Wales increased 122 per cent against the preceding quarter to stand 1 per cent up against the previous year. Major project approvals, at £600m, were responsible for growth, being 200 per cent up on the preceding quarter and 9 per cent up on the previous year. In contrast, underlying project approvals fell 23 per cent (SA) against the preceding quarter and 4 per cent compared with a year ago.
Sector analysis: project starts
Education accounted for the greatest share of the total value (30 per cent), after experiencing the sharpest increase (+558 per cent) of any sector against the previous year to total £176m. Growth in the sector was almost solely due to the commencement of the £65m ‘Mynydd Isa Campus’ development in Clywd. Industrial work starting on-site added up to £136m, a 23 per cent share of the total value. The sector experienced 488 per cent growth compared with a year ago, being boosted by the commencement of the £99.5m expansion of Renishaw’s manufacturing facility in Pontyclun.
Private housing accounted for only 16 per cent of work starting on-site in Wales during Q4 2022, with the value falling 37 per cent against the previous year to total £93m. Social housing construction-starts also totalled £93m, but experienced 61 per cent growth against the previous year.
Value of project starts in Wales during Q4 2022 by sector
| Sector | Value of Project-Starts (£m) | Change on previous year | Change on two years ago | %Share |
| Education | 176 | 558% | 6% | 30% |
| Industrial | 136 | 488% | 215% | 23% |
| Private Housing | 93 | -37% | -14% | 16% |
| Social Housing | 93 | 61% | 28% | 16% |
| Infrastructure | 31 | 319% | -23% | 5% |
| Health | 19 | 77% | -50% | 3% |
| Offices | 17 | -67% | -17% | 3% |
| Utilities | 10 | -45% | -6% | 2% |
| Hotel & Leisure | 8 | -40% | -24% | 1% |
| Community & Amenity | 7 | -69% | -65% | 1% |
| Retail | 5 | -71% | -72% | 1% |
| Total | 595 | 51% | 9% |
Sector analysis: detailed planning approvals
Industrial accounted for more than half (52 per cent) of detailed planning approvals in Wales during Q4 2022 with the value adding up to £781m. Four-digit growth compared with a year ago was due to the approval of the £600m redevelopment of the ‘Shotton Paper Mill’ facility in Deeside (Project ID: 21431256). Private housing accounted for over one quarter (26 per cent) of approvals, despite the value having decreased 2 per cent compared with 2021 levels. Private housing consents added up to £387m.. Industrial and private housing accounted for a combined 78 per cent share of the total value of approvals in Wales during Q4 2022.
Utilities detailed planning approvals performed very poorly during the quarter, falling 74 per cent against the previous year to total £170m. Despite this, the sector still accounted for over one-tenth of the total value. Social Housing (-95 per cent) experienced the sharpest decline of any sector, with the value of planning approvals totalling only £8m during the quarter.
Value of detailed planning approvals in Wales during Q4 2022 by sector
| Sector | Value of Project-Approvals (£m) | Change on previous year | Change on two years ago | %Share |
| Industrial | 781 | 1280% | 1334% | 52% |
| Private Housing | 387 | -2% | 198% | 26% |
| Utilities | 170 | -74% | 3283% | 11% |
| Education | 49 | 33% | 348% | 3% |
| Retail | 29 | 26% | 37% | 2% |
| Hotel & Leisure | 28 | -64% | -36% | 2% |
| Health | 14 | -61% | -86% | 1% |
| Community & Amenity | 13 | 62% | 139% | 1% |
| Social Housing | 8 | -95% | -88% | 1% |
| Infrastructure | 6 | -35% | -53% | 0% |
| Offices | 3 | -78% | -82% | 0% |
| Total | 1489 | 1% | 217% |
Forecast construction starts for Wales
| Underlying project-starts (£m) | Change on previous year | |
| Quarter 1, 2021 | 579 | -13% |
| Quarter 2, 2021 | 503 | 6% |
| Quarter 3, 2021 | 564 | 63% |
| Quarter 4, 2021 | 394 | -28% |
| Quarter 1, 2022 | 679 | 17% |
| Quarter 2, 2022 | 690 | 37% |
| Quarter 3, 2022 | 647 | 15% |
| Quarter 4, 2022 p | 452 | 15% |
| Quarter 1, 2023 f | 683 | 1% |
| Quarter 2, 2023 f | 722 | 5% |
| Quarter 3, 2023 f | 654 | 1% |
| Quarter 4, 2023 f | 505 | 12% |
| Quarter 1, 2024 f | 570 | -17% |
| Quarter 2, 2024 f | 560 | -22% |
| Quarter 3, 2024 f | 570 | -13% |
| Quarter 4, 2024 f | 520 | 3% |
Note: Underlying projects are schemes with a construction value of £250,000 to £100 million. Forecast updated in November 2022 p – provisional, f – forecast. Source: Glenigan
Glenigan – celebrating its 50th anniversary this year – is CN Intelligence’s partner for UK construction project data, market analysis and company intelligence.
Glenigan combines comprehensive information gathering with expert analysis to provide intelligence on all construction sectors, including private and social housing, education, health, hotel and leisure, industrial, infrastructure, offices, retail, and utilities, and across all regions of the UK and Ireland.
Find out more: www.glenigan.com
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