While project-starts increased significantly against the previous year, main contract awards and detailed planning approvals fared poorly in Q4 2022.
South East overview
Totalling £2.53bn, work commencing on-site in the South East during Q4 2022 declined 4 per cent against the preceding quarter but, more positively, remained 25 per cent up against the previous year. Major (£100m or more) project-starts performed strongly, advancing 11 per cent against the preceding quarter and 37 per cent against the previous year to total £350m. Encouragingly, underlying project-starts (less than £100m in value) also performed well, increasing 29 per cent against the preceding quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis (SA) to stand 23 per cent up on 2021 levels.
Adding up to £2.76bn, main contract awards in the South East fell 34 per cent during Q4 2022 to stand 26 per cent lower than a year ago. Major projects exacerbated the decline with the value falling 88 per cent against preceding quarter and 75 per cent against the previous year to total just £130m. Underlying contract awards, at £2.33bn, fell 19 per cent (SA) against the preceding quarter as well as 18 per cent against the previous year.
Detailed planning approvals in the South East, at £3.26bn, decreased by 19 per cent against the preceding quarter but remained unchanged against the previous year. As with main contract awards, major project approvals performed poorly having decreased 82 per cent against the preceding quarter and by 63 per cent against the previous year. Totalling £3.01bn, underlying approvals decreased 33 per cent (SA) against the preceding quarter but stood 16 per cent up against the same period a year ago.
Sector analysis: project starts
Unsurprisingly, private housing accounted for the greatest share of project-starts in the South East during Q4 2022 (52 per cent) with the value adding up to £1.31bn. The value of project starts increased by 69 per cent against 2021 levels, being boosted by a £100m, 525-unit development in Littlehampton. Infrastructure, accounting for 18 per cent of the region’s project-starts, increased 387 per cent against the same period a year ago to total £458m. Infrastructure was one of two sectors that experienced a triple-digit increase in the region..
In contrast, industrial project-starts performed very poorly in the South East, with the value decreasing 73 per cent against the previous year to total £61m. The sector accounted for just 6 per cent of project-starts. Education, at £150m, experienced a 57 per cent decrease on 2021 levels to account for 6 per cent of the total value. Utilities experienced the sharpest decrease of any sector in the area (-82 per cent), with project-starts having totalled £21m to account for an almost insignificant share of the total value.
Value of project starts in the South East during the Q4 2022 by sector
| Sector | Value of Project-Starts (£m) | Change on previous year | Change on two years ago | %Share |
| Private Housing | 1,308 | 69% | 54% | 52% |
| Infrastructure | 458 | 384% | 14% | 18% |
| Health | 189 | 47% | 13% | 7% |
| Education | 150 | -57% | -16% | 6% |
| Hotel & Leisure | 136 | 79% | 469% | 5% |
| Social Housing | 93 | 5% | -50% | 4% |
| Retail | 62 | 123% | 183% | 2% |
| Industrial | 61 | -73% | -81% | 2% |
| Offices | 37 | -67% | -60% | 1% |
| Utilities | 21 | -82% | 105% | 1% |
| Community & Amenity | 16 | -55% | -65% | 1% |
| Total | 2,530 | 25% | 10% |
Sector analysis: detailed planning approvals
Private housing accounted for more than half (63 per cent) of detailed planning approvals in the South East during Q4 2022, with the value advancing 32 per cent against the previous year to total £2.046bn. The sector was boosted by the approval of a £74m, 480-unit development, in Southampton. Health approvals, accounting for 9 per cent of the region, experienced a particularly strong period, rising 65 per cent against the previous year to total £309m. Community & amenity approvals also performed well, rising 19 per cent against the previous year to total £65m.
In contrast, some areas experienced including industrial which at £370m, experienced a 4 per cent decling against the previous year. Industrial approvals accounted for 11 per cent of the total value during the quarter. Offices, at £89m, experienced the sharpest decrease (-86 per cent) of any sector in the South East to account for a 3 per cent share of the total value.
Value of detailed planning approvals in the South East during Q4 2022 by sector
| Sector | Value of Project-Approvals (£m) | Change on previous year | Change on two years ago | %Share |
| Private Housing | 2,046 | 32% | 21% | 63% |
| Industrial | 370 | -4% | 131% | 11% |
| Health | 309 | 65% | 64% | 9% |
| Hotel & Leisure | 119 | 8% | 314% | 4% |
| Social Housing | 98 | -20% | -72% | 3% |
| Offices | 89 | -86% | -35% | 3% |
| Community & Amenity | 65 | 19% | 639% | 2% |
| Education | 55 | -47% | -52% | 2% |
| Retail | 48 | 2% | -13% | 1% |
| Infrastructure | 37 | -10% | -82% | 1% |
| Utilities | 18 | -51% | -92% | 1% |
| Total | 3,256 | 0% | 3% |
Forecast construction starts for the South East
Underlying project-starts (£m) construction starts (£ million) | Change on previous year | |
| Quarter 1, 2021 | 2,163 | -13% |
| Quarter 2, 2021 | 2,440 | 66% |
| Quarter 3, 2021 | 2,258 | 13% |
| Quarter 4, 2021 | 1,766 | -1% |
| Quarter 1, 2022 | 2,999 | 39% |
| Quarter 2, 2022 | 2,553 | 5% |
| Quarter 3, 2022 | 2,333 | 3% |
| Quarter 4, 2022 p | 2,101 | 19% |
| Quarter 1, 2023 f | 2,391 | -20% |
| Quarter 2, 2023 f | 2,153 | -16% |
| Quarter 3, 2023 f | 2,084 | -11% |
| Quarter 4, 2023 f | 1,996 | -5% |
| Quarter 1, 2024 f | 2,408 | 1% |
| Quarter 2, 2024 f | 2,298 | 7% |
| Quarter 3, 2024 f | 2,369 | 14% |
| Quarter 4, 2024 f | 2,210 | 11% |
Note: Underlying projects are schemes with a construction value of £250,000 to £100m. Forecast updated in June 2022 p – provisional, f – forecast. Source: Glenigan
Glenigan – celebrating its 50th anniversary this year – is CN Intelligence’s partner for UK construction project data, market analysis and company intelligence.
Glenigan combines comprehensive information gathering with expert analysis to provide intelligence on all construction sectors, including private and social housing, education, health, hotel and leisure, industrial, infrastructure, offices, retail, and utilities, and across all regions of the UK and Ireland.
Find out more: www.glenigan.com
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