In the three months to November, project starts, main contract awards, and detailed planning approvals all experienced declines on the previous year, with main contract awards and detailed planning approvals experiencing particularly sharp declines.
Retail overview
Totalling £328m, retail work starting on-site during the three months to November decreased 46 per cent against the preceding three months to stand 5 per cent lower than a year ago. No major projects (£100m or more) commenced on-site, in contrast to the preceding three months but remaining unchanged on the previous year. Underlying project-starts (less than £100m) experienced a 23 per cent fall against the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis as well as 5 per cent against the previous year.
Retail main contract awards totalled £215m, a decline of 63 per cent against the preceding three months and 44 per cent against the same period a year ago. Like project-starts there was an absence of major projects reaching the contract awarded stage during the period, in contrast to the preceding three months but remaining unchanged against the previous year. Underlying contract awards decreased by 26 per cent (SA) against the preceding three-month period to stand 44 per cent lower compared with 2021 levels.
Totalling £449m, underlying retail detailed planning approvals increased by 12 per cent (SA) against the preceding three months but stood 18 per cent down compared with 2021 levels. No major projects were granted approval during the period, in contrast to the previous year but remaining unchanged against the preceding three months. Overall, the value of retail approvals increased by 11 per cent compared with the preceding three-month period but decreased by 47 per cent against the previous year
Types of projects started
Shops, totalling £148m, accounted for 45 per cent of all retail project-starts during the three months to November. The value of starts increased 43 per cent on the previous year. Albeit accounting for only 4 per cent of the sector, retail warehousing also experienced growth (+223 per cent) against the previous year to total £13m.
Supermarket projects commencing on-site added up to £102m; a 37 per cent decline against the previous year to account for 31 per cent of the sector.
Petrol filling station project-starts fell by 5 per cent against the previous year to total £32m, accounting for 10 per cent of the sector. Shopping centre developments totalled £1m during the period, a 95 per cent decline on 2021 levels.
Regional
Retail work starting on-site in Yorkshire & the Humber increased 94 per cent against the previous year to total £44m, accounting for a 13 per cent share of the sector during the three months to November. Growth accelerated due to the commencement of several projects. The North East was another relatively active area to experience sharp growth (+100 per cent) against the previous year. Project-starts in the area totalled £25m to account for an 8 per cent share of sector starts. Accounting for one-tenth of retail project-starts, the South East was another significant growth area (+61 per cent) against the previous year with a total value of £34m.
Most regions experienced weak periods for retail project-starts including the Capital where the value fell 37 per cent against the previous year to total £43m. Despite the poor performance, London was the most active region, accounting for 14 per cent of starts. The North West accounted for 9 per cent but experienced a decrease of 34 per cent against the previous year to total £31m. Wales experienced the sharpest decline of any area, with project-starts falling by three quarters compared to 2021 levels to total £5m.
Only four areas of the UK experienced growth in retail detailed planning approvals, one being Northern Ireland where the value more than doubled (+106 per cent) against the previous year to total £70m, accounting for 16 per cent of the sector, making it the most active area. Project approvals in the North West followed a similar trend, here project starts experienced an increase of 14 per cent against 2021 levels, to total £60m. The region accounted for a 13 per cent share of project starts, making the region the joint second most active. The East of England also accounted for a 13 per cent share of approvals, here project starts increased by 48 per cent against 2021 levels to total £59m.
The West Midlands was another region to buck the national trend, here project starts increased by 37 per cent against the previous year to total £32m, accounting for a 7 per cent share of approvals. Like project-starts, most regions experienced declines in detailed planning approvals. Retail approvals in London fell 90 per cent against the previous year to total £41m, accounting for 9 per cent of all sector approvals. Scotland accounted for 8 per cent of the total value, having experienced an 18 per cent decline compared with 2021 levels to total £34m.
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