Prediction market operators such as Polymarket prevented from doing business in largest LatAm market, government announces.
Brazilian Finance Minister Dario Durigan and Miriam Belchior, chief of staff of the presidency, convened a press conference on Friday to announce prediction markets are illegal in the country.
The National Monetary Council (CMN) adopted a resolution today outlining products permitted in the derivatives market. This stated sporting events; virtual online gaming events and real or virtual events of a political, electoral, social, cultural, entertainment, or any other nature are not considered permissible underlying assets for a derivatives contract.
Brazil’s national telecommunications agency Anatel has already begun to take action, blocking 28 platforms offering event contracts, and will continue to act against others that emerge.
The confirmation of prediction markets’ legal status is evidence that Brazil is continuing to refine its betting regulation, Belchior explained at the meeting.
“Now, we are announcing that prediction markets will not be allowed in Brazil,” she said. “We do not want to expose Brazilians to risks and financial losses.”
Durigan emphasised the government’s position, saying it had examined the issue and determined that offering bets on random events, such as weather conditions for example, does not comply with the laws passed for sport betting and online gaming.
“Platforms are already being blocked to prevent uncontrolled growth and risks to the population,” he warned. “Currently, 28 have already been blocked, and others that emerge will suffer the same fate.”
Prediction markets violate Brazilian law
Since Brazil launched its regulated online gambling market in January 2025 39,000 unlicensed betting sites have already been blocked, Durigan said, adding the government will take the same approach towards prediction market operators. “Our goal is to curb any type of illegal betting,” he said.
Durigan was categorical in stating that the prediction market violates the gambling law approved by Congress. “The product offered by these platforms is not eligible for regulation. The blocking action is due to non-compliance with the legislation. This market is not provided for in the legislation, and it will not be permitted for anyone to bet on whether it will rain tomorrow or not.”
Regis Dudena, Secretary of Economic Reforms, stated that Brazil’s regulations aim to organise and control an activity, as was the case with betting. “Betting that is not related to sporting events and online games was excluded from this regulation. Any other type of betting is prohibited,” he emphasised.
Betting presented as a security
“We began to see the growth of prediction markets, which look a lot like betting, but not as defined by law,” Dudena continued. Predictions had all the characteristics of betting, but were presented as a security risk, prompting a request for clarification on what constituted a derivative in the CMN’s view.
“In response, the CMN [National Monetary Council] excluded predictions from the scope of offerings in the market.”
Daniele Correa Cardoso, Secretary of Prizes and Betting, said fixed-odds betting is legal and regulated as a public service. “Therefore, authorised platforms must comply with the established rules.”
Prediction markets entered Brazil to offer bets disguised as derivatives, Cardoso added. “This is illegal and has not been recognised by the Brazilian government,” she declared. “We have seen these platforms and identified that the dynamics are those of a bet, but not covered by Law 14.790, which only covers fixed-odds betting and online games.”
Blocking orders issued
Ricardo Morishita, national consumer secretary, took the opportunity to restate the complete prohibition of the product, since prediction markets were not covered by Law 14.790 nor by the resolution of the National Monetary Council. He warned that illegal betting is an immense risk for consumers, advising players to seek out regulated sites identified by the bet.br domain.
When asked if companies like Polymarket will be prevented from operating in Brazil, Regis Dudena stated that all platforms offering services not covered by the SPA or in accordance with the CMN resolution will be blocked. This suggests Kalshi, which announced plans to launch a Brazilian offering in partnership with XP International last month, also faces blocking.
“Companies that offer derivatives will be protected by law, as long as they do not offer products not covered by the National Monetary Council,” he concluded.
This story was originally published in Portuguese on iGB Brasil.
Gildo Mazza
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