Cardinals 2.16 ERA pitcher has been luckiest in MLB with huge xERA difference

The St. Louis Cardinals are off to an interesting start to the 2026 MLB season. They’re 8-8, and while they might not wind up as a postseason team amid their major roster changes, they look like a frisky team that will win some games.

Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt have been very fun, while others have also sparked intrigue. And in the starting rotation, there is one pitcher who is turning heads, and it’s righty Michael McGreevy.

He has a 2.16 ERA in three starts, which is a great start. But, as @jayhaykid shared on Twitter/x, there is one reason to be a bit worried about McGreevy, as his xERA is significantly worse than his current ERA, implying a lot of luck has gone his way.

Michael McGreevy has been luckiest SP in MLB with xERA statistic

“Largest gap between ERA and xERA (min. 50 BIP) – negative direction: Michael McGreevy: 2.16 ERA, 5.68 xERA (-3.52),” @jayhaykid shared.

Through three starts this season, McGreevy has an ERA of 2.16 with a 0.78 WHIP and 10 strikeouts through 16.2 innings pitched.

However, going by xERA, he should have an ERA more than double what his current figure is. It’s not a tell-all metric, but this xERA number for McGreevy is one to keep in mind.

While he’s been great statistically, the advanced metrics point towards some regression for the young Cardinals righty.

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He had a 4.42 ERA in 16 starts (17 games) across 95.2 innings pitched in 2025, and a 1.96 ERA in three starts (four games) across 23 innings pitched in 2024.

McGreevy likely isn’t as bad as the xERA of 5.68 indicates, but he’s also not nearly as good as the 2.16 ERA he has put up through three starts this season indicates.

The Cardinals’ 25-year-old righty is a solid pitcher, and so far this season through three starts, he’s gotten a bit lucky. That luck should come back around, and his ERA will likely jump up a bit. Hopefully, not so much that he matches his xERA.

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