Football
When it comes to college football win totals for next season, there are a couple of squads whose Over/Under I’m considering.
These two teams, though, are trending in different directions.
On one hand, you’ve got a Colorado team that has its work cut out for itself; on the other is a UCLA team that should be in a good position to succeed.
Here’s why I’m fading the Buffs and backing the Bruins.
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Colorado Over/Under 4.5. wins
We’re entering the fourth year of Deion Sanders as the head coach of the Buffs, and it’s the third year he’s going to coach a team composed mostly of transfer portal players and led by a staff of new coaches.
This is just unsustainable for any long-term success or for building any continuity within the program. Sanders’ team won four games in 2023, then nine in 2024 with the most stable roster he had.
In 2025, it was back to only three wins.
The most promising player on the Buffs’ roster is at the most important position. Quarterback JuJu Lewis showed play-making ability last season as a true freshman. I always feel it’s necessary to add the disclaimer that playing college football as a freshman is difficult. Signs of success like Lewis had overshadowed any typical shakiness that a player in his position might show.
Colorado returns only four other starters on offense from last season and lost its most talented players to the portal. The Buffaloes hired Brennan Marion to run the offense, and he’s been successful as an offensive coordinator at his various spots. It will be interesting to see if he’s got the personnel in Boulder to run his preferred offense. But there are just too many unknowns outside of Lewis for the offense.
Even more unknowns for the Buffs come on defense.
Colorado’s defense wasn’t good last season, so it makes sense that nearly the entire two-deep on defense is portal players. It returns just a single starter on that unit. Colorado moved on from defensive coordinator Rob Livingston, who took a job as the Broncos defensive pass-game coordinator. The Buffs’ portal haul for defense does include plenty of players with starts in their careers, but how quickly can you get a brand-new defense playing well? Might take some time.
Let’s find the wins on Colorado’s schedule.
The Buffaloes will beat Weber State in Week 1 and then the rest are 50-50 games. They will be ‘dogs at Georgia Tech and Northwestern in their non-conference slate. In conference, they have difficult home games against Texas Tech, Utah and Kansas State. They are on the road at Arizona State.
Colorado does get Baylor, Cincinnati and a rebuilding Oklahoma State. The team will need to get four wins out of probably eight games which will be toss-ups, plus an upset to make five wins.
I like Colorado’s under.
PICK: Colorado Under 4.5 wins
UCLA Over/Under 5.5 wins
This will be trendy, but I’m buying Bob Chesney in Westwood.
The former JMU head coach is a winner. He’s been a head coach over multiple levels of football with a record of 132-52. He went 9-4 and 12-2 in his head coaching seasons at James Madison. Now he has the opportunity to coach the most talented team he’s had in his career.
Nico Iamaleava is staying at UCLA as the Bruins’ starting quarterback for a second season. Iamaleava showed his ability after the coaching change and, with even more experience and better coaching, he should shine.
Just like most teams with new coaches, this Bruins squad has a high number of portal players. At least 40 have come with Chesney, including JMU running back Wayne Knight.
The UCLA receiving group has potential and the offensive line should be solid. The defense returns some starters, but will production from the portal be good?
The Bruins’ schedule gives them the best chance to get at least six wins. Week 1 is a toss-up with California, and they should beat San Diego State and Nevada in non-conference play. They play a majority of the bottom of the Big Ten. They get Purdue, Maryland and Michigan State, plus Wisconsin and Illinois at home.
UCLA won’t win at Oregon or Michigan, and probably not against USC. However, I do see at least six wins on this schedule.
PICK: UCLA Over 5.5 wins
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