Duke vs. St. John’s odds, March Madness predictions: 2026 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 picks from proven model

The fifth-seeded St. John’s Red Storm clashes with the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils in a 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday. St. John’s is coming off a 67-65 last-second victory over Kansas on Sunday in the second round, while Duke defeated TCU 81-58 on Saturday. The Red Storm (30-6), who won the Big East at 18-2 and claimed the conference tournament title, have won eight in a row. The Blue Devils (34-2), who won the ACC at 17-1 as well as the ACC Tournament crown, have won 13 straight. Duke lists Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba as questionable. 

Tipoff from Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. The Blue Devils are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Duke vs. St. John’s odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 141.5, down a point from the opener. Before making any St. John’s vs. Duke picks, check out the St. John’s vs. Duke predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Sweet 16 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks.

Now, the model has simulated St. John’s vs. Duke 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for Duke vs. St. John’s:

Basketball Top St. John’s vs. Duke predictions

After 10,000 simulations of St. John’s vs. Duke, SportsLine’s model is going Over on the total (141.5 points). The Over has hit in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings. The Over has also hit in five of the last nine Duke games. 

The model projects the Red Storm to have three players score 10.7 points or more, including Zuby Ejiofor, who is projected to score 15.3 points. The Blue Devils are projected to have three players score 10.2 points or more, led by Cameron Boozer, who is projected to score 23.1 points. The model is projecting 148 combined points as the Over clears in 71% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

Basketball How to make Duke vs. St. John’s picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of Duke vs. St. John’s 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins St. John’s vs. Duke, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the St. John’s vs. Duke spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.