Bitcoins
Bitcoin Price Weekly Outlook
Bitcoin closed the week out at $67,638, not an awe-inspiring close by any means. The support level at $65,650 has held for a couple of weeks now, but the relentless selling pressure will likely take it out this week. As of the time of this writing on Sunday night, the bitcoin price is currently trading below this support level at $64,600. We should expect the price action to remain bearish this week and likely threaten to take out the $60,000 low.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
There is still a chance the $65,600 support level could hold if the price manages to close back above it, but it would be highly unlikely at this point. $63,000 Would be the line of last defense for the bulls to avoid making new lows here. There is a possibility $57,800 could hold the weekly close and provide a reversal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the price moves well below this level first, down to $53,000. Closing a week below $57,800 opens up the support zone at $42,000 to $44,000, which should be a nice area for long term support and a potential reversal in price.
It almost feels like there is no point in providing resistance levels going into this week, with how bearish the price action has been. The price has been trying to hang onto this critical support zone, maintaining weekly closes above $67,000. If we finally lose this level, look for it to become resistance with the long-term POC on the volume profile now resting right there. $72,000 has proven to be significant resistance above here. Closing above $72,000 opens up $74,500, then we have $79,000 resistance above that.
Outlook For This Week
With this week’s price action starting with a big dump on Sunday night, the outlook is very dim for this week. While the daily oscillators were giving us some hope for a reversal over the last couple of weeks, they appear to be flipping bearish now. RSI is currently below the 13 SMA, while the MACD appears to be headed towards a bearish cross below the zero line. Both of these signals, being confirmed on a daily close, should lead to more downside.
Market mood: Very bearish – The weekly candle this past week was not much different than the prior week, still weak, still bearish.
The next few weeks
The bulls have failed to generate any momentum after the bounce from $60,000 three weeks ago. Weekly oscillators are still in bearish territory with no signs of reversing, which points to continued downside. The MRI indicator is sitting on a red 6 entering this week, which would suggest another four weeks of bearish price action ahead, unless the price manages to close above $77,000 this week. This would be a highly unlikely outcome, to say the least. HODL onto your hats!
Ethan Greene is the founder of Feral Analysis, where he consults, teaches, and publishes chart-based technical market insights. www.feralanalysis.com
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.
SMA: Simple Moving Average. Average price based on closing prices over the specified period. In the case of RSI, it is the average strength index value over the specified period.
Oscillators: Technical indicators that vary over time, but typically remain within a band between set levels. Thus, they oscillate between a low level (typically representing oversold conditions) and a high level (typically representing overbought conditions). E.G., Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).
RSI Oscillator: The Relative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. It measures the speed of the price and changes in the speed of the price movements. When RSI is over 70, it is considered to be overbought. When RSI is below 30, it is considered to be oversold.
MACD Oscillator: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence is a momentum oscillator that subtracts the difference between 2 moving averages to indicate trend as well as momentum.
Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI): A proprietary indicator created by Tone Vays. The MRI indicator tracks buyer and seller momentum and exhaustion, providing signals to indicate when to expect momentum to fade and accelerate.
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