Football
Parker Fleming, a popular college football analytics guru inside the space, joined Josh Peterson on this week’s I-80 Football Show. Before a deep dive into the semi-final round of the College Football Playoff, he unpacked Nebraska’s 2025 season and discussed what new defensive coordinator Rob Aurich could bring to the table in 2026.
Below is a lightly edited transcript of the conversation about Nebraska, including Nebraska’s up-and-down offense, Emmett Johnson’s success amidst an average rushing season for the team, and so much more.
Josh: The program was seemingly in good spot, right? They were putting together a really nice start; 5-1 for the second straight year. Really tailed off big time. They go 2-5 and it’s been already quite the fascinating week for them.
There’s a lot of holes, whether it starts at the quarterback position. The defensive line. That was a key that we looked at all of last off season; “are they sure that they want to go into the season with this?” The running back position? They lost an All-American and an 1800 yard back. Their third quarter EPA numbers were terrible, especially coming off of pretty strong first and second quarters.
I guess I don’t really have a granular question. It’s more of a big picture [one]. When you look at them right now, when you wonder and you start thinking about what they need to do, it’s a long list, isn’t it, to get to the level that they want to under Matt Rhule?
Parker: Yeah, starting from the purview of, what were they good at and what did they struggle at? Also, you don’t just replace a Nash Hutmacher on the defensive line, Nebraska Wrestling legend, and expect to be as good as you were last year. So, definitely some personnel stuff there. I’m contractually obligated to myself to mention the Nebraska Wrestling legend every time I talk about Nebraska, so I had to slip it in there.
I tweeted on October 17th, which, that was the Minnesota loss. And I just said, “Am I allowed to ask about the hypothetical state of the union for Nebraska where this [PJ] Fleck loss happened and Brendan Sorsby just doesn’t underthrow that pass at the very end there?” Like they don’t have to catch it. I think they would’ve scored if he hadn’t. I think the margins were a lot closer, and the “year three Rhule” might’ve been unfair to put that standard on him. I think you and I’ve also talked about the hype around that, and because of that.
The offense moved the ball well, consistently. But couldn’t find that big play. With Emmett [Johnson], they were able to create some big runs, but I think the big passing threat wasn’t there. There are 45th in EPA per rush, 42nd in EPA per drop back. So, I think the bones of the Dana [Holgorsen] offense were there. They anticipated a lot more explosivity, and having that explosivity would have really papered over some defensive issues.
The defense [was] 63rd in EPA per play, 107th against the rush. We talked about the defensive line. Two things I don’t like to see from Nebraska, in terms of identity. You think about the Blackshirts and kind of the identity; 124th in points per quality drive allowed. So, when things got tough, when it became about the athletes, when the field got short, Nebraska got blown the heck out. And they just let teams score. And that, from an identity standpoint, did not mesh with my preseason expectations. Also, they were 129th, and the rush rate was over expected against. Which means teams were like, “We didn’t even care about your past defense. Your run defense is so bad, we are just going to run over you.” And both of those are kind of big red flags for me in terms of, all right, when Nebraska is looking in the mirror this off-season, how do they take those steps to get back to that identity?
I have to imagine they’re trying to find some sort of portal solution for the defensive line. Obviously, you’ve got to address quarterback kind of before that, but I think that defensive line is like a necessary condition, even if it’s not a sufficient condition. You can’t win without a defensive line. You’re not going to win only because of the defensive line. But Nebraska’s at such a point that they have to address that. And so that’s one of those that I’ve circled and watched. Who’s the next man up? Can they get some reinforcements in to try to reclaim a nasty front seven?
Josh: Parker, you mentioned the EPA per rush numbers, which I think for folks listening who maybe haven’t delved into the advanced stats world or they haven’t really followed EPA a whole lot, they’re probably gonna be surprised by that number. “Wow, in the 40s, even though they had an all-American running back, a guy who got 1,800 plus all-purpose yards.” Just a massive jump for Emmett Johnson.
What does it tell you that their rushing numbers were that? It’s above average, right? But it’s still closer to average than you would expect for a team with an All-American running back. What does it tell you about the running game that that was where they ranked this year?
Parker: I think there are a couple of things. You can go to the rushing overview, the player rushing overview on CFP-graphs.com. I’ve got Emmett Johnson pulled up here. And one of the highest carry shares of anyone in the nation was the workhorse back.
I think there are two things that kind of stand out. One, in the red zone, his success rate came down to 34%, which was in the 35th percentile among qualified running backs. So, the red zone rushing success was not there. You can see how that disproportionately dings EPA because in the red zone, expected points are higher. When you don’t score, you lose a lot of expected points. His EPA in the red zone was 36th overall. His first down touchdown rate outside the red zone was 31%; that’s 64th percentile. In the red zone was 25%, which is the 43rd percentile.
So you could see the red zone run game, whether it’s the physicality, whether it’s play design; that was definitely something that was glaring there.
I also think that the consistency in the run game is important. He had some really, really great games. Maryland, 57% success rate. Iowa, 57% success rate. UCLA, 56%. But then you’ve got Michigan, 26%. Even in the Akron game, only a 35% success rate. Minnesota, 34%, Penn State, 22%. And so, it felt like the run game was boom or bust, just in terms of efficiency. Not like, “we’re getting these big plays some games, and we aren’t.” It’s like, “Oh, we’re not moving the ball consistently.”
So, I think it’s the combination of the red zone where you get, you know, some of those disproportionate plays that really sink your EPA because you’re expected to move the ball well there. And then, just kind of the back and forth; did come on stronger later in the season, but still a little up and down. The volatility was pretty high in terms of the week-to-week variance of the run game.
Josh: That makes a whole lot of sense, and that’s really interesting and also fits a large discussion point that we have had around here in Nebraska this season. And that is, “what on earth was going on in the red zone for Dana Holgorsen?” Because that was his calling card for years. I mean, you can go all the way back into when he was the OC for those [Mike] Gundy teams at Oklahoma. And that was a massive struggle for Nebraska this year. So that fits with Emmett Johnson.
One more question for you as it pertains to Nebraska. Rob Aurich, San Diego State, is the new defensive coordinator. I am always interested in guys who have had success at lower levels of college football, whether that is an FCS or even a D2 or D3, and they start working their way up. Of course, Curt Cignetti is going to be the poster child for that at this current moment of time. We’ve seen Lance Leipold at Kansas have success over the years as well.
I wonder when you dive under the hood and look at what his defenses have been able to do, or at least what his defense did [in] 2025, as it comes to a close. And maybe the things that you like and the things that maybe you’re, I guess, questioning at all; is there anything that really jumps out to you about his team in the Mountain West Conference?
Parker: Yeah, a legitimate defense with NFL guys on San Diego State this year. Really, really great. 20th in opponent adjusted EPA per play, 46th against the rush, 13th against the pass. Those pass rushers make a lot of the cornerbacks look good, that they had, but the cornerbacks were also very legitimately good.
Really, really good in terms of success rate. So just the down-to-down business of stopping successful plays. They were fourth in dropped back, 17th in the rush. Again, speaking to that identity, fifth in points per quality drive. Very balanced in rush rate over expected; 0.9 percentage points more than average teams rushed against them. So not like there was an obvious weakness that teams were trying to exploit. Very balanced defense, very tough defense. A little bit more aggressive on early downs than late downs. They were fourth in early downs EPA allowed, 13th in third and fourth down success.
I think fundamentally, it’s a really solid defense. Clearly can identify undervalued guys who have high, high ceilings. And I think he’s got a good sense of complementary football processes on the defense, where we know the pass rush is going to help the defensive backfield. We know that linebackers and the interior defensive line are tied together. We know that a run-stopping safety can change these pieces. I think he’s got a good idea of how to assemble a defense.
Want more from Parker, including thoughts on the 2025 season and a preview of the CFP? Watch the entire podcast below!
More From Nebraska On SI
Stay up to date on all things Huskers by bookmarking Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI, subscribing to HuskerMax on YouTube and visiting HuskerMax.com daily.
Read More Josh Peterson