Trump’s political revolution makes America the world’s biggest risk: Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer

2026 is shaping up to be a defining year for the global order, and according to Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer, the single biggest risk is not China, Russia or artificial intelligence — but the United States itself.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Bremmer warned that President Donald Trump’s ongoing “political revolution” is injecting deep uncertainty into global markets, alliances and trade, even as Washington simultaneously sharpens its use of tariffs and sanctions as instruments of economic coercion. For countries like India, the implications are no longer abstract. They are immediate, measurable and potentially costly.

America as the biggest global risk

Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2026 report flags the US as the most consequential risk factor because Trump is actively trying to weaken institutional checks, politicise the state and redefine how power is exercised. While this consolidation has delivered short-term wins for Washington — from trade negotiations to energy geopolitics — Bremmer argues the longer-term consequences are destabilising.

“A more unpredictable Washington weakens alliances, unsettles markets and accelerates a fragmented and conflict-prone world,” he said, adding that US policy volatility itself is now a systemic risk for the global economy.

Why Bremmer believes Trump will ultimately fail

Despite the aggressive push, Bremmer does not believe Trump’s political revolution will succeed. He outlined three reasons.

First, Trump’s limited popularity. Bremmer expects Republicans to lose the House in the midterm elections, increasing the likelihood that Trump is viewed as a lame duck, weakening his grip over his own party.

Second, institutional resistance remains real. Courts have already moved to constrain executive power, including rulings limiting trade authorities and overturning attempts to deploy federal forces domestically. The judiciary, federal structure, and professional military remain key guardrails.

Third — and most crucially — Trump’s lack of discipline. Bremmer argued that successful political revolutions require singular focus. “If you want to destroy your principal enemy, you focus on that,” he said. Instead, Trump’s attention is scattered across issues like Greenland, Venezuela and trade theatrics, undermining strategic execution.

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Tariff wars are not over — but courts may intervene

Trade remains the most immediate transmission channel of US political risk to global markets. Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is likely to face judicial scrutiny.

Bremmer said the law was never designed to be used against “90-plus countries for political purposes” in the absence of a genuine national emergency. While he stopped short of predicting how the Supreme Court will rule, he expects the judiciary to constrain — though not fully dismantle — Trump’s tariff powers.

For markets, this creates a dangerous grey zone: tariffs may persist in the near term, but with rising legal uncertainty that complicates investment and supply chain decisions.

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Watch accompanying video for entire discussion.