Bitcoin price prediction – What are BTC’s breakout odds after whales take a step back?

Bitcoin’s price is now on the road to bullish recovery on the back of selling pressure on exchanges dropping sharply.

The regulatory environment remains a key factor in this setup, especially as conversations around a potential rebound grow louder. Hence, it’s worth looking at how the market could unfold over the next few weeks.

A fall in selling pressure…

Bitcoin’s [BTC] recent performances include its recovery from $84,000 to nearly $93,000, with the crypto stabilizing around $91,400 at press time.

A major driver of this hike in momentum has been the sharp decline in Total Exchange Volume, with the same falling from 88,000 BTC to around 21,000 BTC.

When exchange deposits rise, it means that investors are moving assets to sell. The aforementioned decline underlined the opposite though – Bullish strength may be gradually returning.

Average deposits per investor, according to CryptoQuant, also dropped from 1.1 BTC to 0.7 BTC, confirming that selling pressure has weakened. Such a reduction in deposits largely reflects the actions of two groups – Whales and short-term holders (STH).

Whales and STHs regain confidence

The latest decline in Bitcoin’s price was primarily driven by whales and short-term holders reducing their selling.

Over the past month, whale deposits—both from new and old participants—fell from 47% to 21% across exchanges. STH activity mirrored this trend over the same period. This phase of selling reflected whales and STH realizing negative margins, meaning they were selling at a loss.

One pattern stood out though – Whales sold about $3.2 billion worth of Bitcoin during this period, while the STH SOPR dropped to 0.97 and has since held near that level. According to CryptoQuant, when profit-realization at a loss reaches a certain threshold, a rebound typically follows.

“Historically, selling pressure eases when market participants realize they have incurred heavy losses.”

Whether that threshold has fully peaked isn’t yet clear, but the emerging momentum may be a sign that a rebound could be approaching.

If momentum continues to build, Bitcoin is likely to swing towards $98,700 – A key resistance level on the chart. A stronger push could extend the move towards the $102,000–$112,700 zone, according to on-chain traders’ projections.

What are the experts saying?

Two industry leaders believe the market’s recent behavior reflects a fragile, but improving setup for Bitcoin, one shaped by macro uncertainty and cooling sell pressure.

Farzam Ehsani, Co-Founder and CEO of VALR, believes the market sits in a “delicate balance,” shaped by expectations that the Fed will ease monetary policy. According to the exec, this optimism makes the market “highly vulnerable to any cooling signal from the Federal Reserve.”

Ehsani added that Bitcoin’s narrowing range near $92,000 is indicative of growing tension in the market, with a potential breakout likely to set the tone for the coming months.

Similarly, Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, said Bitcoin’s recent rebound reflects a market that is stabilizing after forced unwinds and heavy selling from long-term holders. While sell pressure has cooled, he warned that “the buy-side depth required for a sustainable rally is yet to be established,” pointing to still-weak ETF inflows and shallow spot demand.

He also claimed that improving flows and renewed risk appetite could still open the path for Bitcoin to reclaim the upper end of its range and work towards $100,000 heading into early 2026.

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin selling across exchanges has fallen again after whales and short-term holders paused their activity.
• On-chain data suggests a move towards $98,700 remains the near-term target for the cryptocurrency’s price.