Dolphins vs. Jets prediction, odds, start time: 2025 NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football picks from proven model

A two-game ‘Monday Night Football’ slate in NFL Week 4 begins with the Miami Dolphins hosting the New York Jets. These divisional rivals are both winless on the season, and only one team in league history has ever made the postseason after an 0-4 start. Miami (0-3) fell 31-21 to Buffalo in its most recent contest last Thursday, making it 0-3 for the first time since 2019. New York lost 29-27 in Week 3 to Tampa, as the Jets are 0-3 for the fourth time since 2019, which is the most in the NFL over that span. Cornerback and new acquisition Jarvis Brownlee (ankle) and edge Jermaine Johnson (edge) are out for New York.

Kickoff is at 7:15 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., where the home team has won nine straight meetings with the Jets. Miami is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Jets odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before making any Jets vs. Dolphins picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model is on a sizzling 39-19 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Dolphins vs. Jets. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Jets vs. Dolphins:

Football Why the Jets can cover

New York couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to see on Monday Night Football as the Dolphins are 1-7 over their last eight primetime games. That includes four straight Miami defeats at home in primetime, and the team has lost five of its last six MNF appearances overall. Also, the mini-bye that Miami is coming off after playing last Thursday doesn’t appear to help their chances of covering as the Dolphins are 0-4 against the spread with a rest advantage since the start of 2024.

The Jets have a potent running attack with a number of talented backs, plus mobility with the quarterback position with Justin Fields cleared from the concussion protocol. The team entered Week 4 ranking in the top 10 in both rushing yards per game and rushing scores, despite Breece Hall yet to find the end zone in 2025. Than run game should undoubtedly get boosted by the pass game, as that’s what Miami’s defense tends to do for opponents. The Dolphins are first team since the merger to allow nine total touchdowns and zero turnovers to their opposing starting quarterbacks in each of the team’s first three games. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Football Why the Dolphins can cover

Playing at home has certainly been an advantage for the Dolphins in this series as they’ve won nine straight home matchups with the Jets. All of them have been by more than the spread of 2.5 points as the Dolphins have a 10.4-point average margin of victory during this run. Additionally, Tua Tagovailoa has had success versus his divisional rival no matter where the games have taken place as the quarterback is undefeated in five starts against the Jets, including averaging 277.5 passing yards, a 76% completion rate and a 3:0 TD:INT over his last two versus New York.

The Dolphins offense has come to life after an eight-point Week 1, particularly the run game, as the team rushed for 130 yards last week versus Buffalo. Miami is averaging 5.4 yards per carry on the year, which ranks fourth in the NFL, while the team ranks No. 1 in third-down conversion percentage and fourth in redzone scoring. That offense can take advantage of deficiencies with the Jets defense, as New York hasn’t had a takeaway, ranks in the bottom 10 in run defense and is in the bottom five in scoring defense. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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Football How to make Jets vs. Dolphins picks

For this NFL Week 4 Monday Night Football game of Dolphins vs. Jets, the model is leaning over the total, projecting 50 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in almost 60% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Jets vs. Dolphins, and which side of the spread hits almost 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Jets spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 39-19 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.