CEOs are getting more confident about the economy — with a catch

More than half of American CEOs believe some semblance of stability will finally return to the U.S. economy by July, once the tumult of tariff news settles down.

According to the CEO Confidence Index conducted by the Chief Executive Group, which surveyed 277 corporate leaders in early June, optimism has been rising for the last three months — but slowly, and not exactly with great enthusiasm.

The index rates confidence on a scale of 1 to 10: it’s currently at a not-very-inspiring 5.3, which is up from 5 in May and 4.5 in April, when the Trump administration launched its trade war. In January, just before Trump took office, the index was at 6.3.

Consumer demand is the same or higher than last year, said the report, which supports a report from the Conference Board at the end of May. Rodon Group CEO Michael Araten thinks “business conditions are likely to improve as trade war calms down and interest rates are reduced.”

In April, 62% of CEOs survived expected a recession sooner rather than later. That number is down to 28%. And yet inflation is expected to rise: 69% of CEOs expect their costs to trend upwards in the coming year.

However, any sunshine is clouded with a caveat: that the Trump administration is able to establish some stability in the next three weeks, after flip-flopping on tariffs for the past three months.

Trump declared April 2 to be “Liberation Day” with a series of tariffs on every U.S. trading partner. One week later, he backed down, enacting a 90-day pause and claiming that his team could negotiate 90 trade deals in the next 90 days. As of June 9, they have one: with the U.K.

No matter: Trump says every other country will just have to take their lumps, saying they’d be getting letters that will be “telling people what they will be paying to do business in the United States.”

Meanwhile, the OECD claims that America itself will be the biggest loser in the trade war it started.