Why Bernstein sees Bitcoin hitting new highs in 2025

• Analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets like gold or the Nasdaq are misleading.
• Bernstein pointed out that between ETF holdings and corporate treasuries, nearly 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now locked up.
• Chhugani noted that current momentum from corporations and institutions alone could push Bitcoin to new highs in 2025.

Bitcoin could soon break new highs as corporate accumulation and renewed exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows drive a “supply squeeze,” analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said in a note to clients on Monday.

Analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, argued that short-term correlations between Bitcoin and assets like gold or the Nasdaq are misleading, and that factors such as retail selling exhaustion, corporate treasury accumulation, and strong ETF inflows offer a clearer signal for Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Last week, SoftBank, Tether, Bitfinex, and Cantor Fitzgerald announced the launch of Twenty One Capital, a Bitcoin corporate treasury venture starting with 42,000 BTC.

The venture will be backed by $900 million from SoftBank, $1.5 billion from Tether, and $600 million from Bitfinex, with plans to merge with Cantor Equity Partners through a SPAC and raise an additional $585 million at closing.

Bernstein compared Twenty One Capital’s strategy to that of Strategy, which raised $22 billion in 2024 and $8.6 billion so far in 2025 to aggressively build its Bitcoin holdings.

However, Twenty One’s key advantage is its backing, particularly Tether, which earned $13 billion in 2024 from its $148 billion USDT supply.

Corporate accumulation is becoming increasingly competitive, the analysts noted, with around 80 companies now holding approximately 700,000 BTC, representing 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

Bitcoins ETF inflows return

Meanwhile, after a two-month lull following Bitcoin’s 31% drop from its all-time high above $109,000 on Inauguration Day to a low near $75,000, US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows turned positive again.

Over $3 billion was added last week—the highest in five months and the second-largest inflow on record. Bitcoin was recently trading at around $95,295.

ETFs now hold over 5.5% of the total Bitcoin supply, equivalent to around $110 billion in assets under management.

Of that, nearly 33% is held by institutional investors—up from about 20% in September—with 48% of the institutional AUM held by investment advisors and 31% by hedge funds.

Bernstein pointed out that between ETF holdings and corporate treasuries, nearly 9% of Bitcoin’s total supply is now locked up—a sevenfold increase since January 2024.

Separately, President Trump’s recent executive order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve could further accelerate sovereign adoption of Bitcoin.

Chhugani noted that while current momentum from corporations and institutions alone could push Bitcoin to new highs in 2025, any significant Bitcoin purchases by the US government are not priced in and could trigger a global shift in sovereign accumulation strategies.