The U.S. and China are finally having trade talks. Here’s what to expect

For the first time since President Donald Trump imposed a sweeping 145% tariff on Chinese imports, senior U.S. and Chinese officials will meet face-to-face this weekend in Geneva. The high-level talks could mark a turning point in a trade war that has frozen key sectors of the global economy and rattled business confidence.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, Beijing’s top economic official and a key figure on the Communist Party’s Politburo. This marks the highest-level engagement between the two countries since the latest escalation in tariffs brought U.S.-China trade nearly to a halt.

Here’s what you can expect discussions to focus on.

Talks likely aimed at deescalation, not a deal

While no breakthrough — and certainly no trade deal — is expected, the meetings are widely seen as a first step toward cooling trade tensions.

“My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal,” Bessent told Fox News (FOXA)’ Laura Ingraham earlier this week. “But we’ve got to deescalate before we can move forward.”

Bessent noted that the 145% U.S. tariff and China’s 125% retaliatory duty are tantamount to an “embargo,” warning that such levels are “not sustainable”—especially on China’s side. He emphasized that the Trump administration is seeking “fair trade,” not decoupling. The Treasury Secretary previously said it was China’s responsibility to cool the flames of the trade war, flames Trump largely stoked.

Trump, earlier this week hinted that China “wants to meet” and that talks will happen “at the right time.” The president has also signaled that rates could “come down substantially” — though he insists that it’s other countries, not the U.S., that need trade deals.

“We don’t have to sign deals. They have to sign deals with us,” he said during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Trump’s rhetoric remains unpredictable. Friday morning, he suggested a potential lowering of the high tariffs he placed on Chinese goods — a still-high but significantly lower 80%.

“80% Tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B.,” Trump posted on his Truth Social account, referring to Bessent.

The president’s post has further fueled speculation that his administration is preparing to revise its tariff strategy. The New York Post (NWSA) reported Thursday that those numbers might not be the 80% the president teased Friday morning but lower: reportedly between 50% and 54%.

What’s on the table

While both sides have kept the official agenda vague, expectations are coalescing around a few core themes: tariff deescalation, supply chain stabilization, investment and market access, and technological policy.

The most immediate focus is expected to be easing the punishing tariffs that have brought U.S.-China trade in sectors such as consumer electronics, agriculture, and industrial goods to a standstill. Both governments have acknowledged these levels are economically damaging.

U.S. businesses continue to push for relief, warning of rising costs and supply chain disruptions. Imports through key U.S. ports have plummeted to early-pandemic levels, prompting some manufacturers to accelerate diversification strategies, including relocating production or reshoring parts of their supply chains.

Although not expected to result in any immediate agreements, the Geneva meetings could reopen channels for more formal bilateral investment talks. American firms, particularly in finance, health care, and manufacturing, have long sought more predictable access to China’s market, a key issue in past negotiations. Trump wrote in an all-caps social media message Friday morning that “China should open up its market” to the U.S., because it “would be so good for them.”

“CLOSED MARKETS DON’T WORK ANYMORE!!!” Trump said in the Truth Social post.

And intellectual-property protections and export controls remain flashpoints. U.S. officials could to press Beijing on IP enforcement, while China is likely to challenge expanding U.S. tech restrictions.

A carefully choreographed first step

Both governments are portraying the talks as a pragmatic, if unofficial, step forward. In a nod to diplomacy, Bessent claimed the meetings came about because both delegations “happened to be in Switzerland,” while Chinese officials framed Vice Premier He’s presence as a response to an invitation from the Swiss government.

The neutral setting of Geneva — also home to the World Trade Organization — offers symbolic cover as both sides navigate the political optics of meeting after months of tariff escalations and stalled backchannel efforts.

The Commerce Ministry said in a statement last week that senior U.S. officials have reached out “multiple times” to start negotiations. Trump, however, has insisted that Chinese President Xi Jinping has been the one to reach out to him — and not the other way around.

Trump said in a recent interview with Time that Xi had called him, which prompted Chinese officials to call that report “fake news” and emphasize that there had been no calls and no talks on tariffs. Since then, however, China has hinted that the government is willing to talk trade — with some significant caveats, including no coercion or “blackmail.”

“If the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs,” a spokesperson for the commerce ministry said in a statement in early May.

A fragile opening

Despite the symbolic weight of the meetings this weekend, Bessent has emphasized that the U.S. has not yet begun formal negotiations with China. “We have not engaged in negotiations with [them] as of yet,” he said in testimony before Congress earlier this week, even while acknowledging that 17 other countries are in active trade talks with the U.S. The Trump administration announced its first post-tariffs trade agreement, with the United Kingdom, on Thursday.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian acknowledged the talks but warned that Beijing would not respond to “threats and pressure.” If the U.S. is serious about a negotiated solution, he said, it must “change its approach.”

Still, markets reacted positively to the Geneva announcement. U.S. stock futures rebounded Tuesday evening after the news broke, reflecting optimism that a diplomatic thaw might be underway.

Whether this weekend’s talks mark the start of real negotiations — or simply a bucket of water thrown on the flames of an intensifying trade war — will depend on what is said behind closed doors this weekend.