As the World Turns on Trump, Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum Has Other Plans

When Claudia Sheinbaum took office as Mexico’s first female president last October, her historic rise drew global attention—and quiet skepticism. A scientist by training and a reserved technocrat by reputation, Sheinbaum was seen as cautious and untested in the arena of high-stakes diplomacy.

She assumed office just one month before the U.S. presidential election, at the height of a turbulent campaign season when signs were starting to point ward Donald Trump defeating Kamala Harris. Amid swirling speculation, Sheinbaum remained composed. She sidestepped reporters’ headline-chasing questions and, when Trump ultimately won, became one of the first world leaders to offer congratulations.

Still, doubts lingered—particularly over her ability to manage what is arguably one of the world’s most complex bilateral relationships. But while many global leaders are still figuring out how to deal with a second Trump presidency, Sheinbaum is already executing a plan.

And it’s working.

Last week, as Trump unveiled a new 10 percent global baseline tariff and harsher “reciprocal tariffs” on most trading partners, Mexico stood out as a notable exception. Thanks to months of groundwork by Sheinbaum and her economic team, Mexico emerged with preferential treatment—confounding skeptics and earning grudging respect from the famously unpredictable U.S. president.

“There are no additional tariffs on Mexico, and that is good for the country,” Sheinbaum said during a press conference last Thursday. She attributed the exemption to “the good relationship we have constructed with the U.S. government, based on collaboration but with respect.”

The Most Popular Leader in the Free World

That relationship didn’t materialize overnight. In the first two months of Trump’s term, Mexico faced threats of auto and steel tariffs—twice. Each time, the White House held back, partly due to continued negotiations led by Sheinbaum’s team and her personal, measured diplomatic tone.

The calm Sheinbaum projects is no accident. Behind the scenes, she has orchestrated a highly disciplined diplomatic strategy to keep Mexico out of Trump’s crosshairs—a stark contrast to the more confrontational approaches taken by other U.S. trade partners and neighbors like Canada.

“President Sheinbaum wisely set out some parameters to manage the always complex U.S.-Mexico relationship,” said Michael Shifter, senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank focused on international affairs in the Western Hemisphere.

“She expressed willingness to cooperate with the U.S. on immigration and fentanyl while insisting that Mexico would not waver in defending its national sovereignty. Unlike Trump, who is erratic and unpredictable, Sheinbaum is disciplined and focused.”

One of the more revealing moments came during a 45-minute phone call between Sheinbaum and Trump on February 3.

Speaking in English—a surprise to Trump, who was said to have found interpreter-assisted talks with her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, tedious and overly long—Sheinbaum proposed deploying 10,000 troops to the border to help curb fentanyl trafficking. The proposal resonated with her counterpart, who paused planned tariff hikes and reportedly told her, “You’re tough,” according to The New York Times.

Her balancing act is also paying off politically at home. “Her strong posture has been a political boon, stirring nationalist sentiment,” Shifter noted. “Her approval level is higher than for any Mexican president in the last 30 years.”

Domestic polling shows her approval rating ranging between 63 and 85 percent, buoyed by a public perception that she is standing up to Trump without needlessly provoking him. At the high end, those numbers make Sheinbaum the most popular democratically-elected leader in the world, surpassing Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s 75 percent approval.

“She’s gaining strength from these tensions,” said Javier Rosiles Salas, a Mexican political analyst and professor at the Universidad de la Ciénega del Estado de Michoacán. “In Mexico, Trump is generally seen as an enemy of the country, and Sheinbaum has positioned herself as a defender of national sovereignty.”

Rosiles Salas added that, unlike in Canada—where Trump’s tariffs deepened partisan divides—Sheinbaum’s approach has unified much of Mexico’s political class. “Even opposition governors are backing her, if reluctantly,” he said. “The narrative of standing up to Trump resonates well.”

Playing a Long Game

While China, Canada, and the European Union scrambled to retaliate or denounce the new tariffs, Sheinbaum stayed the course. “We will announce a comprehensive program, not a tit-for-tat on tariffs,” she told reporters on April 2, the day before Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement that sent global markets into a tailspin. Her government followed with an 18-point economic plan focused on strengthening national production and boosting domestic content in key sectors such as autos, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals.

“She has indicated a very open and frank relationship with President Trump and his team while presenting a clear interest in Mexico’s interests,” said Earl Wayne, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico during the Obama administration. “She seems to have a good sense of the depth and range of these interests.”

Her deputy economy secretary, Luis Rosendo Gutierrez, put it more bluntly: “The instruction of President Claudia Sheinbaum was to work closely and cool-headed with the United States government, looking for fair and preferential treatment.”

The results followed. Unlike many U.S. allies, Mexico was granted key exemptions from the “reciprocal” tariffs. USMCA-compliant exports were spared entirely, while some sectors—like non-compliant auto parts and steel—remain under 25 percent duties. The most aggressive penalties were avoided.

That strategy has extended beyond trade. When Trump signed an executive order renaming the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America”—a symbolic move heavy with nationalist overtones—Sheinbaum resisted the urge to wade in. According to one aide, she dryly quipped in private that perhaps parts of the U.S. that once belonged to Mexico should be renamed “Mexican America.” But the remark went no further.

Martha Bárcena Coqui, the former Mexican ambassador to the U.S., said Sheinbaum understands how much is at stake. “She’s been doing well in maintaining a continuous dialogue with the Trump administration on the many issues that make this relationship so complex,” Bárcena told CNN.

Risks on the Horizon

However, the risks of this fragile relationship breaking down are very real.

“There is a long way to go in the Sheinbaum-Trump relationship,” Shifter, of the Inter-American Dialogue, warned. “No matter what Sheinbaum does to accommodate Trump—whether it’s putting Mexican troops on the border or taking in deportees—it never seems to be enough.”

Although the 62-year-old president appears strong now, it’s unclear whether her political support would hold if Mexico’s economy were to suffer due to renewed U.S. tensions. That could include retaliatory tariffs or a breakdown in joint migration enforcement.

“If there’s an economic crisis in Mexico and people lose their jobs, they’ll look for work wherever they can find it,” Bárcena said. “Mexico can’t legally stop them from heading to the border. That would undermine all the joint efforts between Mexico and the U.S. to reduce migration.”

Rosiles Salas, the Mexican political analyst, echoed that concern and warned the greatest danger may not be economic—but security-related. “If the Mexican government fails to adequately contain criminal groups, it could lead the U.S. to take harsher measures,” he said. “This could very well be the breaking point of the ‘friendly’ relationship.”

For now, Sheinbaum continues to walk the tightrope with a level of precision that would make other world leaders envious. While global heads of state brace themselves for Trump’s next move, Mexico’s president has already shown that clarity, patience and calm might just be the best way to navigate the storm.

“There are many areas where better mutual understanding is needed,” said Wayne, the former U.S. ambassador. “Sheinbaum seems to have a good sense of the depth and range of these interests.”