Joey Sendaydiego for Vox
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Welcome to The Logoff. Today we’re focusing on the Trump administration’s new Ukraine policy, a shift with major implications for the war and for the world.
What’s the latest? Donald Trump today said he and Vladimir Putin had agreed to start peace talks in Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, new Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said it was unrealistic for Ukraine to recover all of the land it has lost since Russia invaded in 2014. Hegseth also said the US would not commit its military to protect Ukraine after the war and that the US would not support Ukraine joining NATO.
How is that different from Biden-era Ukraine policies?
- The Biden administration had said it would continue supporting Ukraine “as long as it takes” and that it would make no arrangements for Ukraine’s future without Ukrainian involvement. Trump initiated peace talks without Ukraine’s assent.
- Biden had publicly committed to Ukraine keeping all its territory, but even the country’s staunchest allies admitted that was probably an impossibility. So Hegseth’s statements there are more a reflection of reality than a shift in policy.
What’s the upside to the new policy? Russia’s war on Ukraine has caused mass casualties and human suffering. A peace deal would end that — if it holds.
What’s the downside? Ukrainians fear a peace deal will be a pause in hostilities, rather than an end to them. They fear that Putin will see that he can use force to gain territory, use the peace deal as a pause to rebuild his military, and then invade again — this time without as much US resistance. Keeping Ukraine out of NATO was also a key Russian priority, and consenting to that and other Putin demands in advance also forfeits US leverage in eventual talks.
And with that, it’s time to log off …
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