Bitcoin CME gap drop to $78K possible due to fringe risks surrounding US economy

Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) price has whipsawed in both directions. The most recent swoop to the downside saw BTC price fall to $89,600 on Jan. 13, leading market participants to speculate on whether a CME Bitcoin futures gap below $80,000 could be filled.

This gap, which formed between Nov. 9 to Nov. 10, saw the futures price rise 3.8% from $77,900 to $80,900. Following the nature and logic of CME gaps, some traders anticipate that Bitcoin may soon correct to these levels to fill in the gap.

Bitcoins Why traders focus on CME gaps

In traditional finance, candlestick gaps on asset charts occur when there is a difference between an asset’s closing price at the end of one trading session and its opening price in the next. The BTC CME gap, however, is unique due to Bitcoin’s never-ending trading cycle in decentralized and centralized exchanges. This means that when the CME reopens on Sunday evening, BTC futures must take into account BTC spot price movements that occurred during the weekend.

The gap can be further amplified by the nature of financial derivatives, which are driven by expectations of future price movements rather than the immediate market conditions influencing spot trading. Thus, BTC CME futures are often priced higher than spot BTC when the markets are optimistic (in contango) and lower when the sentiment is pessimistic (in backwardation).

Related: Bitcoin could dip to $70K, but current price a ‘good entry point’ — Fundstrat

CME gaps are often closed over time as the market corrects after an initial overreaction. Some gaps can remain open during strong market momentums, such as Bitcoin’s rally in March 2023, but as most traders anticipate it happening, this expectation can also create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Bitcoins Will the CME gap be filled soon?

If the CME gap were to be filled, BTC could potentially drop to $77,900. 

For JJ, the head of crypto derivatives at the trading firm HighStrike, this scenario looks likely. 

“Considering BTC’s lack of momentum to begin 2025 we should consider the CME gap resting down below $78K as a primary area of interest on any deep pullbacks in Q1. At present there’s no shortage of macro fears that could cause such a sharp sell-off, such as the 10-year bond yield breaking out above the crucial 4.7% area it had traded under since April of 2024 when BTC was in the low 60k region.” 

Regarding additional factors that could catalyze Bitcoin price downside, JJ said,

“Should the market continue to price in more restrictive Fed policy following this week’s CPI report on Wednesday, Thursday’s retail sales data, and ultimately the FOMC meeting on the 29th we are unlikely to see Bitcoin continue to hold on to the $90K – $100K range it’s spent most of the past 2 months consolidating at. A loss of the $90K level into February should set the stage for the CME gap to be filled by the end of Q1.”

Fellow crypto trader @heavynodes added to JJ’s perspective by sharing a Bitcoin UTXO realized price distribution chart and explained that the URPD “shows additional confluence for a future retest of this range due to the lack of onchain volume transacted at that level.”

The spot price is currently trading 9 % above the short-term holder cost basis, suggesting the market remains within the typical range of a bull market. However, if the market fails to regain upward momentum, the risk of falling below $88,000 increases, potentially triggering near-term stress or even panic selling. Such a scenario could quickly drive the BTC price to around $74,500, as the URPD chart indicates a significant lack of volume between these levels.

Technical analysis aligns with the above scenario. Nathan Batchelor, managing partner of Biyond Trader, admits the possibility of BTC CME futures going to $78,855 level.

“Bitcoin has been holding above the 50-day SMA on the CME futures despite a number of attempts to break to the downside. Notably, the 100-day SMA sits extremely close to the price gap on the CME futures chart. We feel a downside attack toward the 100-day is possible if the 50-day SMA gives way and ideally starts to curve lower pointing to increasing downside pressure.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.